XMR gains 4.31 percent as persistent selling signals remain on the MACD: weekly analysis

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Monero gains 4.31% this week

Highlights

Monero faces ongoing selling pressure but maintains long-term support, currently trading well above its 200-week trend line.
Short-term indicators are mixed, with oversold momentum offsetting bearish signals, suggesting increased volatility and potential for sideways trading.
Expected price range for the next week is $303–$357, with a higher probability of a downward or range-bound move unless bullish momentum strengthens.

Momentum mixed as oversold signals clash with resistance tests

On the weekly chart, XMR continues to show mixed technical signals. The MACD highlights persistent selling momentum and moderate trend strength is suggested by the ADX at 23.33. Oversold readings come from the CCI and Bull/Bear Power, the RSI remains neutral, and the Stochastic RSI points to a possible rebound. Dynamic resistance is near the MA-20 and MA-50 levels, while structural support is provided by the MA-200. Volatility for the week reached 8.79%, with price action closing strong against the week’s highs.

Rangebound forecast as bearish risk dominates in coming week

Over the next 7 days, XMR is expected to trade between $303 and $357 based on recent volatility and the current technical setup. With only 25% of key indicators signaling a bullish scenario, the risk skew remains tilted to the downside unless positive momentum materializes. The base case anticipates sideways movement within the established range, as oversold conditions counterbalance bearish weekly momentum. A clear breakout above $357 would shift near-term sentiment, while a drop below $303 could invite further selling.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, senior analyst at Traders Union, sees Monero’s recent resilience as evidence of underlying investor confidence, despite the lack of major headlines this week. He highlights that the asset’s strong close near the top of its range, paired with robust support above the MA-200, signals that buyers remain active even as medium-term pressures persist. Current oversold readings and neutral-to-rebounding oscillators open the door for bullish scenarios if positive momentum emerges. Macro and sentiment factors could provide a tailwind if overall market appetite improves. "With Monero outperforming key levels and oversold signals flashing, I expect sideways-to-higher action this week and view any breakout above $357 as a catalyst for renewed upside momentum."

Previously it was reported that U.S. authorities have expanded counterterrorism sanctions to include Monero wallet addresses linked to illicit financing networks. As Monero consolidates above its long-term trend support with oversold signals emerging, traders should watch for any breakout beyond $357 or a drop below $303 as cues for the next directional move.

Source of Data: XMR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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