Monero slides as regulatory scrutiny pressures privacy coin liquidity: weekly outlook

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Monero falls 2.27% this week

Highlights

Monero faces medium-term bearish momentum, trading below key moving averages and showing persistent seller dominance.
Momentum indicators are broadly negative, with oversold readings and weak trend signals pointing toward continued caution.
Price is expected to oscillate between $311 and $346 over the next week, with increased downside risk if $311 support fails.

Liquidity and participation drop as regulatory pressures intensify this week

Regulatory scrutiny continues to impact Monero, with several global initiatives resulting in exchange delistings of privacy coins and stricter compliance demands. These measures have led to declining liquidity, reduced trading volume, and lower institutional participation. Despite these challenges, the Monero ecosystem remains active, with continued integration progress on THORChain highlighting ongoing development in cross-chain capabilities.

Bearish momentum prevails as technical signals confirm weekly downtrend

On the weekly timeframe, XMR remains under its MA-20 and MA-50, confirming a persistent downtrend in the medium-term. Weekly technical indicators show dominant selling pressure: the MACD signals a bearish trend, the ADX reflects only a modest uptrend, and oscillators such as the RSI, Commodity Channel Index, and Stochastic RSI all linger in oversold or sell zones. Bull/Bear Power is notably negative, mirroring overall seller dominance. Immediate weekly support is seen around $311, while resistance is near $346, with XMR currently trading in the mid-range between its weekly high and low.

Narrow range likely next week amid uncertain breakout catalysts

In the next 7 days, XMR is likely to consolidate within the $311 – $346 corridor, with limited prospects for an immediate bullish reversal. Sideways price action is the base case scenario as markets digest recent volatility and regulatory developments. A break above $346 could trigger a recovery toward the weekly moving averages, but this would require clear improvements in momentum. Conversely, a decisive drop below $311 could see XMR test lower levels, especially if seller pressure intensifies.

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, notes that Monero ended the week under pressure, trading below its key moving averages and struggling with persistent bearish momentum. He believes that regulatory headwinds and resulting liquidity declines are constraining both sentiment and price action. In the upcoming week, Mehta sees Monero consolidating within the $311 – $346 zone unless technical momentum improves or regulatory pressures ease. "For now, I expect range-bound action, but any decisive move outside $311 or $346 could quickly tilt the tactical outlook in either direction."

Earlier, analysts noted that Monero was contending with medium-term selling pressure while finding support from its longer-term trend. The current environment reinforces this narrative, as persistent regulatory headwinds and further declines in momentum suggest traders should keep a close watch on the $311 support level for potential downside risks in the near term.

Source of Data: XMR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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