Flat trading for Bitcoin as over $4 billion ETF withdrawals by institutions weigh on sentiment

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Bitcoin slides 0.25% to $73,590 today

Highlights

US-Iran agreement to extend ceasefire and reopen Strait of Hormuz supports geopolitical de-escalation but adds macro market uncertainty.
Over $4 billion has exited US spot Bitcoin ETFs since May 7, reflecting heightened risk aversion tied to Fed policy and ongoing tensions.
Bitcoin trades in a bearish trend below major moving averages, with oversold signals suggesting a likely range of $73,550 to $74,750 and limited upside prospects.

Risk aversion mounts as ETF outflows and geopolitical tensions escalate

On May 29, the United States and Iran reached an agreement to extend the ceasefire by 60 days, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and commence nuclear talks, as confirmed by the White House. In the days prior, U.S. airstrikes on an Iranian military site near the region triggered renewed geopolitical risk, which contributed to persistent outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. These developments, along with more than $4 billion in institutional ETF withdrawals since May 7 amid macroeconomic uncertainty and a hawkish Federal Reserve, have further intensified risk aversion and pressured sentiment toward Bitcoin.

Bearish momentum persists as technical resistance and oversold signals align

BTC faces technical resistance at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $77,700.01, with additional resistance at the SMA-20 ($77,631.00), SMA-50 ($77,223.94), and SMA-200 ($79,843.69). Momentum indicators remain negative, as both the MACD and ADX on daily and weekly timeframes show a weak or absent trend, while the Awesome Oscillator confirms this bearish momentum. Multiple oscillators are in oversold territory—RSI on the daily chart is 35.07, Stoch RSI is at 0.00, and CCI stands at –151.34—supported by a BBP reading favoring sellers. The price is trading mid-range within today’s narrow band, with little intraday volatility and sellers currently in control.

Downside risks elevated as oversold conditions limit bitcoin rebound

For the coming week, BTC is expected to trade within a typical volatility band between $73,550 and $74,750. The probability of an immediate price increase is assessed as very low (less than 20%), pointing toward continued downside risks, given the sustained sell signals on multiple weekly indicators. The base case is for Bitcoin to consolidate within this corridor while oversold conditions persist. Should the price break above the $77,700 resistance, a potential trend reversal could become possible, while a move below $73,550 risks triggering a deeper retracement.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees Bitcoin facing sustained macro and geopolitical headwinds. He notes that persistent ETF outflows and oversold technicals limit any immediate recovery. Resistance at $77,700 and negative momentum keep risk firmly skewed to the downside. "With weak sentiment and sellers in control, my tactical outlook remains defensive unless Bitcoin reclaims the $77,700 zone."

Previously it was reported that analysts saw continued consolidation and limited upside for Bitcoin amid persistent seller dominance and declining institutional flows. In light of recent geopolitical developments adding to ETF outflows and macro uncertainty, traders should closely monitor for heightened volatility if either the $77,700 resistance or $73,550 support is decisively breached in the days ahead.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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