Toncoin drops 7.38% as price faces resistance after sharp decline

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Toncoin slides 7.38% today to $1.857

Highlights

Toncoin is rebranding to Gram in a move to revive its original 2018 vision and strengthen project identity.
The transition has strong community backing, entails no token swap for holders, and aims to maintain operational continuity.
Technical signals show heavy selling with most indicators bearish, as price is likely to fluctuate between $1.636 and $2.078, favoring further downside.

Ecosystem engagement grows as Gram rebranding triggers governance vote

Toncoin is undergoing a rebranding to Gram, as formally announced by Telegram founder Pavel Durov on June 1. This change seeks to refresh the project's identity and reconnect with its original 2018 vision, and is accompanied by an active community governance vote showing notable support. The rebranding process, which does not require any token swap or migration, is designed to minimize disruption for current holders and preserve operational continuity. These developments have contributed to a heightened sense of engagement within the ecosystem, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Sustained selling outweighs mixed oscillators as downside momentum builds

On the H1 chart, TON has fallen below the MA-20 level of $2.020 and MA-50 at $2.037, while staying above the long-term MA-200 at $1.547. The immediate resistance is identified at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $2.015. Momentum indicators present a mixed picture: MACD and ADX are statistically neutral, RSI is at 45.997 and signaling Sell, CCI is also on Sell, and Stoch RSI indicates an oversold state. BBP suggests buyer dominance, while the Awesome Oscillator remains neutral. The price is currently near the daily low and there is a negative gap of 0.033, confirming sustained intraday selling pressure and a divergence where some oscillators flag oversold but trend signals favour sellers.

Downside risk dominates as volatility expected within trading range

Over the next 2–3 trading days, TON is expected to trade within a volatility band spanning $1.636 to $2.078. The likelihood of further downside is much higher than any immediate rebound, given current market dynamics. The baseline scenario envisions consolidation within this range. If sustained buying emerges and the price moves above $2.015, a bullish move could develop. Conversely, should the price breach the $1.636 support zone, a deeper decline is likely in the short term.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the Toncoin rebranding to Gram as a fundamentally positive development for the project’s long-term narrative. He notes that strong community engagement and the preservation of operational continuity strengthen sentiment, even as price remains under short-term pressure. Macro and sentiment factors remain constructive, though technical signals point to the risk of more downside before a recovery attempt. Karapetjanc believes patient positioning could benefit from this transition phase. "If the restructuring process continues smoothly and the network holds key support, I expect renewed interest and upward momentum for Gram in the coming weeks."

Previously it was reported that Toncoin’s rebranding to Gram was seen as a move to strengthen its ecosystem identity despite ongoing selling pressure. The current technical landscape reinforces this cautious outlook, with heightened downside risk prevailing as traders should closely monitor the $1.636 support for signs of either stabilization or a deeper decline.

Source of Data: TON Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.