Ethena rises 7.37% as Anchorage Digital partnership expands institutional access

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Ethena gains 7.37% to $0.0928 today

Highlights

A major ENA token unlock has increased circulating supply, impacting demand, liquidity, and short-term price dynamics.
Total value locked on Ethena declined 12% in three days, signaling reduced user activity and potential concerns about platform stability.
Technical signals are mixed, with ENA/USD projected to trade between $0.0845 and $0.1011 amid high volatility and a bearish tilt.

Supply jump and outflows weigh as institutional custody expands

The recent substantial unlock of Ethena's governance token (ENA) has expanded the circulating supply, influencing demand and liquidity as the market absorbs additional tokens. Concurrently, Ethena's total value locked has declined by 12% in the past three days, reflecting reduced user participation and outflows from the protocol, which may impact perceptions of platform stability. On the institutional front, Ethena Labs has expanded its partnership with Anchorage Digital to deliver regulated custody services for lending operations, potentially improving access for large investors and bolstering institutional credibility.

Momentum divergence as price holds above near-term supports

ENA/USD trades above its MA-20 ($0.0908) while remaining capped below the MA-50 at $0.0931 and far under the MA-200 at $0.1516. Immediate technical support is identified at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $0.0903, with key volatility bands set by a recent trading range. Momentum indicators present a complex picture: the MACD signals ongoing buying, RSI stands at 50 with a Buy signal, and Bull/Bear Power (BBP) shows strong buyer dominance intraday. In contrast, the Stoch RSI issues a Strong Sell, while ADX and the Awesome Oscillator remain Neutral and CCI is also Neutral, highlighting divergences among oscillators and mixed trend clarity.

Downside risk elevated as volatility band constrains moves

Over the coming days, ENA/USD is expected to fluctuate within a volatility band of $0.0845 to $0.1011. The probability of downward movement currently outweighs upward scenarios, with odds at 69% down versus 31% up, and the base case implies continued sideways trading inside this range. A sustained breakout above $0.1011 would open the door to further gains, while a breakdown through $0.0845 support could trigger a broader retest of lower levels.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees Ethena navigating a complex transition after its major token unlock. He notes that institutional partnerships, such as the expanded Anchorage Digital custody, are positives for sentiment and future access. However, he remains mindful of recent TVL outflows and mixed technical signals pointing to short-term sideways action. The expert believes building demand and credibility are needed to sustain further upside. "If ENA holds above key support and institutions continue to back the protocol, I expect confidence to gradually return to the market," he says.

Earlier, analysts noted that despite institutional interest and ecosystem developments, Ethena was contending with persistent bearish momentum and heightened volatility after major token unlock events. The current analysis strengthens this view, indicating that although short-term technicals have improved, the probability of downward movement remains elevated, making monitoring volatility bands and support at $0.0845 crucial for near-term risk management.

Source of Data: ENA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.