Galaxy Digital cuts CLARITY Act passage odds as Senate timeline tightens

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CLARITY Act passage odds

Highlights

Galaxy Digital cut its odds for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 from 75% to 60%, citing tight Senate timing before the August recess.
JPMorgan analysts estimate less than a 50% chance of the CLARITY Act passing this year, echoing a broader industry decline in optimism due to legislative delays.
Unresolved ethics and illicit finance provisions remain major obstacles, with key Senate leaders yet to commit to scheduling a decisive floor vote before elections.

Senate schedule pressure builds

As reported by Cointelegraph, Galaxy Digital has reduced its estimate for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 from 75% to 60%, with head of research Alex Thorn saying time for Senate action is running short.

Thorn says the bill must clear the Senate before a month-long August recess that starts in late July, because the legislative window effectively closes after that. He adds that major legislation historically struggles to advance in the run-up to midterm elections as lawmakers shift focus to campaigning.

The Senate Agriculture and Banking Committees have already passed versions of the bill, but it still needs at least 60 votes on the Senate floor to move ahead without prolonged debate. Thorn says Majority Leader John Thune realistically needs to schedule floor time in July, because any later timing would leave too little room for debate, amendments, reconciliation with the Senate Agriculture text and House approval of changes.

Galaxy also says it has seen no evidence that the bill itself, or negotiations around it, has advanced. Thorn identifies ethics and illicit finance provisions as unresolved sticking points and says the firm would revisit its odds if Senate leaders commit to passage next month and finalize measures needed to win broader support.

Industry outlook turns more cautious

Galaxy's updated view aligns with a broader cooling in market expectations around U.S. crypto market structure legislation. JPMorgan analysts said on Wednesday they see less than a 50% chance that the CLARITY Act passes this year, also pointing to a compressed congressional timetable ahead of the elections.

Bitwise investment chief Matt Hougan similarly says he is less optimistic, adding that Washington contacts he spoke with put the odds of passage between 5% and 30%. The widening caution suggests the digital asset industry is increasingly concerned that procedural hurdles and unresolved policy disputes could delay regulatory clarity.

Senator Cynthia Lummis has intensified pressure for Senate action, posting repeatedly on X in June that the bill has cleared committee and should move to the floor next. She tells CNBC that lawmakers are still working through issues including ethics and illicit finance provisions that could otherwise weaken support in a floor vote.

In our earlier coverage of bipartisan Senate whistleblower legislation, we explained how lawmakers moved to strengthen protections for people reporting misconduct in federal operations. The measure expanded coverage to contractors and grantees and aimed to reduce retaliation by enabling safer reporting channels. The goal was to encourage more disclosures of waste, fraud, and abuse while reinforcing accountability across federal agencies.

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