Hyperliquid price prediction: Could $49.90 support hold as HYPE drops 10.66%?

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Hyperliquid slides 10.66% to $55.55 today

Highlights

Coinbase's appointment as USDC deployer for Hyperliquid brings heightened oversight to $32 million in stablecoin reserves, improving transparency and risk controls.
Hyperliquid leads industry token buybacks with over 90% of protocol fees funding repurchases, while regulatory initiatives advance via $29 million in HYPE allocations for policy engagement.
HYPE/USD faces strong bearish momentum and oversold signals, with price expected to consolidate between $49.90 and $60.02 as further declines are likely.

Institutional oversight and buybacks strengthen amid persistent bearish pressure

Coinbase was confirmed as the new official USDC deployer for Hyperliquid's treasury operations, bringing direct oversight to $32 million in stablecoin reserves through implementation of the AQAv2 framework. This institutional involvement has enhanced the protocol’s operational transparency and risk management profile. Separately, Citrini reported that Hyperliquid accounted for nearly half of all crypto token buyback activity this year, a result of its system allocating over 90% of protocol fees into an Assistance Fund that conducts ongoing market repurchases. In addition, major asset manager Kalshi has filed with the CFTC to list perpetual futures contracts tied to HYPE, and the Hyperliquid Foundation recently allocated $29 million in HYPE tokens to establish the Hyperliquid Policy Center to address pending regulatory matters, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Oversold reading as technical resistance coincides with sustained sell momentum

On the hourly chart, HYPE is trading below the MA-20 at $58.59 and the MA-50 at $61.14, highlighting short-term resistance levels. The long-term MA-200 on the daily timeframe is below at $36.40, underpinning a broader trend. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at $59.01, serving as immediate resistance, while key support is identified at $49.90. RSI reads 27.89, indicating an oversold condition, and additional indicators including Stoch RSI, CCI, and BBP all point to seller dominance. Both MACD and ADX confirm prevailing sell momentum, with AO also indicating sustained downside pressure.

Consolidation scenario as breakout hinges on range extremes

In the short term, the expected volatility band lies between $49.90 and $60.02 over the next two to three trading days. The baseline outlook favors a continued consolidation within this range. A decisive break above $59.01 would be required to signal a bullish reversal, while a drop below $49.90 would mark continuation of the prevailing downtrend.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the recent involvement of Coinbase and Kalshi as a positive signal for institutional trust in Hyperliquid. He notes that heavy buyback activity and significant regulatory initiatives are supporting underlying demand, despite current price weakness. Technicals remain challenging, but macro and sentiment trends appear constructive. Karapetjanc states: "If $49.90 support holds, renewed optimism on institutional and buyback flows gives HYPE potential for recovery in the near term."

Earlier, analysts noted that Hyperliquid’s long-term outlook remained constructive, underpinned by robust buyback mechanisms and growing institutional engagement despite prevailing short-term selling pressure. The current decline below key short-term averages and heightened oversold signals reinforce the need to closely monitor $49.90 as a pivotal support level for signs of stabilization or further downside risk.

Source of Data: HYPE Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.