Polkadot tumbles as price trades below major moving averages: weekly outlook

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Polkadot falls 15.05% this week

Highlights

Polkadot trades firmly below key moving averages, reinforcing a bearish medium- and long-term technical structure.
Momentum and volatility indicators signal strong downside pressure, with no buy triggers and sustained negative sentiment.
Expected price range for the week is $0.86 to $1.04, with a decisive break below $0.86 exposing further downside risk.

Disinflationary shift and ETF launch as tech upgrades unfold this week

Polkadot has implemented a major tokenomics change by reducing inflation by 53.6% and establishing a historic supply cap, making the asset disinflationary for the first time. This structural adjustment coincides with technology upgrades such as JAM and Elastic Scaling, designed to enhance the network. Additionally, the recent launch of the 21Shares Polkadot ETF on Nasdaq has attracted limited inflows.

Strong bearish bias sustained as major averages and momentum lag during the week

Technical analysis on the weekly timeframe remains strongly bearish for DOT. Price is well below all major weekly moving averages — with MA-20 at $1.289, MA-50 at $2.417, and MA-200 at $4.966 — confirming medium- and long-term downtrends. Key support is now seen near $0.86, while resistance is identified around $1.04 and at the MA-20. On the W1 timeframe, RSI and CCI are in oversold territory, and the Stochastic RSI is deeply oversold, suggesting risk of short-term exhaustion but no reversal signals yet. The MACD remains on a "Strong Sell" and the ADX reflects strong downside momentum, while Bull/Bear Power is negative and the Awesome Oscillator is neutral but does not contradict the prevailing bearish setup. Weekly volatility is high at 26.36%, highlighting recent intense price swings.

Range-bound outlook as bearish signals suppress breakout potential next week

For the next 7 days, DOT is likely to consolidate within the range of $0.86 to $1.04, anchored by continuing bearish momentum on the weekly chart. A recovery above $1.04 is considered unlikely, with less than a 20% probability as key momentum indicators do not signal a reversal. The baseline scenario is range-bound action, but if selling pressure intensifies, a drop below $0.86 could expose even lower levels given the prevailing weakness. Traders should watch for any signs of bullish divergence in weekly momentum indicators as potential early signals for stabilization.

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, notes that Polkadot’s weekly performance continues to show strong bearish momentum, with price closing well below all major moving averages. Despite historic tokenomics changes making DOT disinflationary and the launch of the 21Shares ETF adding some optimism, these factors have not yet shifted overall market sentiment. Technical indicators suggest substantial oversold conditions, but with no reversal signals, the range between $0.86 and $1.04 is likely to define price action this week. Turakhiya sees traders remaining cautious, watching for early signs of stabilization in momentum readings. "Until DOT reclaims resistance above $1.04 and bullish divergence signals appear, I prefer to stay defensive and focus on price reactions near key range boundaries."

Earlier, analysts noted that Polkadot faced persistent technical weakness and sustained bearish sentiment amid elevated trading activity. The current bearish structure is reinforced by recent disinflationary tokenomics changes and technology upgrades, making $0.86 a crucial support level to monitor in the days ahead as further downside remains a key risk.

Source of Data: DOT Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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