What's behind Polkadot's latest 7.0% price surge?

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Polkadot gains 7% after BITW removal

Highlights

Bitwise removed Polkadot from its 10 Crypto Index ETF, reducing DOT's institutional ETF exposure and demand potential.
Despite the ETF exclusion, DOT's short-term price action remained resilient as buyers absorbed the shift in allocations.
Technicals signal strong short-term bullish momentum with overbought conditions, projecting a $0.866–$0.917 range over the next 2–3 days.

ETF removal limits institutional flows while market shows resilience

Bitwise has removed Polkadot from its flagship Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF (BITW) and replaced it with Hyperliquid and Stellar as part of the latest monthly rebalance, according to Finance Yahoo. This confirmed change reduces DOT's exposure to ETF-driven institutional flows, which can impact overall demand and liquidity for the token. Despite the potential for a negative impact, the market response suggests near-term buying interest has remained resilient amid shifting product allocations.

Buyer dominance persists amid overbought signals and key supports

On the technical front, DOT/USD is trading above its MA-20 ($0.838) and MA-50 ($0.832) on the hourly chart but remains below the MA-200 ($1.388) on the daily timeframe. The Ichimoku Kijun level on the daily chart at $0.853 acts as immediate support. Strong momentum is reflected by readings from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Average Directional Index (ADX), and Bull/Bear Power, all pointing to buyer dominance. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 80.155, along with Stochastic RSI and Commodity Channel Index (CCI), indicate overbought conditions, signaling caution as price exhaustion becomes a risk. The Awesome Oscillator continues to support the current trend.

High upside probability as price consolidates in narrow band

Looking ahead to the next 23 trading days, DOT/USD is expected to consolidate within a volatility band of $0.866 to $0.917. The probability of continued upside is very high, while the risk of a downward move remains much lower. In the baseline scenario, DOT/USD holds its gains and trades sideways within the identified range. If bullish momentum persists, a breakout above $0.917 could drive further gains, while a drop below the $0.853 support would open the way for a deeper correction.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Polkadot displaying strong near-term resilience despite losing its place in a major ETF. He notes that macro sentiment stays upbeat, with buyers asserting control and technical momentum broadening the case for continued gains. The confirmed ETF removal is a setback for long-term institutional flows, but immediate price action highlights robust demand. He believes upside risks remain dominant if volatility stays contained. "This is a constructive setup for DOT, and as long as support holds, I expect continuation within the upper range."

Earlier, analysts noted that Polkadot was under sustained bearish pressure and showed little sign of recovery amid prevailing technical weakness. The latest momentum shift, despite ETF exclusion, signals a potential inflection point for DOT, making the durability of its recent rebound and any sustained move above $0.917 critical for near-term direction.

Source of Data: DOT Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.