Persistent buying interest drives Monero up in a push toward key $352.13 barrier

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Monero jumps 7.48% today to $331.82

Highlights

Regulatory scrutiny continues to constrain Monero's investor base and exacerbate market volatility in the privacy coin sector.
Despite reduced open interest and heavy short positioning in derivatives, Monero maintains network stability with an inflation rate below 1% and a 2.3 GH/s hash rate.
Technicals show strong short-term bullish momentum amid overbought conditions, with XMR/USD expected to consolidate between $311.51 and $352.13 in the next few days.

Volatility persists as traders trim exposure amid regulatory pressures

Ongoing regulatory pressures continue to shape the outlook for Monero and the wider privacy cryptocurrency sector, limiting market access for some investors and heightening volatility. Recent data show a 12% contraction in XMR futures open interest over the past 24 hours, pointing to traders closing out positions as volatility unwinds, while a persistently negative perpetual funding rate highlights dominant short sentiment in derivatives markets. Despite these headwinds, Monero's network hash rate remains stable at 2.3 GH/s and its circulating supply sits at 18.4 million XMR with annual inflation below 1%, reinforcing the asset's fundamental security and scarcity backdrop.

Bullish momentum persists despite overbought signals and capped by MA-200

XMR/USD trades above the MA-20 ($316.58) and MA-50 ($316.44), but remains below the long-term MA-200 at $392.20. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $317.40 is acting as immediate support. On the momentum side, MACD signals Buy and the Awesome Oscillator is positive, confirming strong upward movement, while the ADX remains Neutral. RSI stands at 63.43 (Buy), with Stoch RSI, CCI, and BBP all flagging overbought intraday conditions and a clear buyer dominance, though short-term caution is warranted due to stretched momentum.

Continued gains likely as price consolidates within defined trading band

In the short term, XMR/USD is expected to trade within a $311.51 to $352.13 volatility band. There is a high probability of continued upward movement, while the likelihood of a significant downturn is very low. The baseline scenario is a consolidation phase within this corridor; a move above $352.13 could open the way for further gains, while a drop below $311.51 would risk immediate technical support.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Monero facing persistent regulatory headwinds, reinforcing a cautious sentiment. Technically, short positioning remains strong, but stable network fundamentals and low inflation limit downside risk for now. He maintains that a consolidation phase is most likely as long as XMR holds above key technical support. "Until Monero can clear $352.13 with conviction, I expect range trading to dominate and remain defensively positioned."

Earlier, analysts noted that Monero’s recent rally was fueled by renewed institutional interest and technical developments, despite headwinds from exchange delisting and regulatory scrutiny. The current article builds on this outlook by highlighting that, while persistent negative derivatives sentiment poses a risk, stable network fundamentals and constructive price action reinforce the case for further consolidation with an upside bias—making a breakout above $352.13 the key catalyst to monitor.

Source of Data: XMR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.