+1.66% for Ethereum as sellers remain in control despite weak momentum

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Ethereum rises 1.66% as uncertainty grows

Highlights

Ethereum Foundation's spending cuts and the end of the Client Incentive Program have created an annual $30 million funding gap for core network upkeep.
Recent departures of both co-directors have raised concerns over internal governance and long-term stability at Ethereum.
ETH/USD faces a 74% probability of further downside, with weak momentum and a trading range of $1,639 to $1,866 expected in upcoming sessions.

Network upgrade risks rise as funding shortfall and leadership exits widen

The Ethereum Foundation has implemented substantial spending cuts, which, alongside the expiration of its Client Incentive Program, leaves a notable $30 million annual gap needed to maintain the core network. This shortfall restricts Ethereum’s capacity to tackle essential upgrades and strategic threats, raising questions about the project's long-term sustainability. Recent resignations of both Foundation co-directors, including Hsiao-Wei Wang, have further unsettled perceptions of internal stability and effective governance. These developments, as outlined in the latest disclosures, contribute to increased uncertainty over Ethereum’s operational continuity.

Resistance at Kijun as momentum and volatility remain muted

On the technical front, ETH/USD is positioned below the 20-period moving average and above the 50-period moving average on the four-hour chart, while trading well below the 200-period moving average on the daily chart. The Ichimoku Kijun at $1,755 currently forms immediate resistance, with price action opening the session with a gap of $14.43. Momentum indicators are subdued: the MACD signals 'Sell', ADX reads as Neutral, and RSI provides a 'Sell' signal, while both the Stoch RSI and CCI are Neutral, indicating no strong overbought or oversold conditions. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) points to overbought intraday conditions, highlighting brief buyer dominance, but with the overall momentum weak and moderate volatility, any short-term upside remains at risk of fading.

Bearish bias prevails as downside breakout probability increases

For the next several sessions, ETH/USD is expected to trade within a volatility band between $1,639 and $1,866. Current projections assign a 26% probability to a breakout to the upside and a 74% probability to a downward move, making a further decline more likely. The baseline case sees the price ranging in its established corridor, while a bullish move would require a clear break above the immediate resistance at the Kijun level, and a bearish scenario would unfold if the price falls through the $1,639 support.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Ethereum facing short-term stress but finds the project’s foundation resilient. He notes that while budget cuts and leadership changes have shaken sentiment, the network’s capacity for adaptation remains strong. Despite technical weakness and near-term downside risk, he expects resourceful teams will address funding gaps over time. "I believe these disruptions are transitional and constructive holders should keep their focus on Ethereum’s long-term innovation edge."

Earlier, analysts noted that Ethereum remained pressured by ongoing geopolitical tensions and persistent capital outflows, keeping market sentiment cautious. The emergence of a funding gap and recent leadership turnover now intensify concerns over network sustainability, making the $1,639 support a crucial level to monitor for potential downside acceleration.

Source of Data: ETH Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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