Oversold readings limit further decline for Ethena in ongoing downturn

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Ethena drops 7.07% today to $0.0877

Highlights

Ethena's ENA token saw daily active addresses rise to 5,057, reaching peak on-chain activity since November 2025.
Market cap stands at $841.89 million with new wallet creation climbing, indicating expanding user participation despite downside price action.
ENA trades below key moving averages and within a bearish trend, with technicals indicating a high likelihood of consolidation between $0.0846 and $0.0949 amid ongoing selling pressure.

Active addresses surge as platform use outpaces price recovery

Ethena's ENA token registered its highest on-chain activity since November 2025, with daily active addresses reaching 5,057 according to reported network data. This rise in user engagement points to increased transactional use of the platform, contributing to fundamental protocol activity. Market capitalization stood at $841.89 million, with a 24-hour trading volume of $102.57 million, while new wallet creation also expanded, signaling growing participation — though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Sustained oversold signals as sellers dominate technical landscape

On the H1 chart, ENA/USD is trading below the MA-20 ($0.0929), MA-50 ($0.0921), and the long-term MA-200 ($0.1362). The immediate resistance sits at $0.0928, as defined by the Ichimoku Kijun level. Momentum signals are negative, with MACD in Sell mode and ADX indicating a neutral, weak trend. The RSI is at 31.08, placing it in sell territory, while both the Stoch RSI and CCI remain in oversold zones, showing prolonged selling pressure. BBP confirms dominance by sellers through intraday readings, and the Awesome Oscillator is also signaling sell conditions. While oversold levels suggest short-term bounce risk, no technical reversal has formed yet.

Downside risk lingers as rangebound trading persists

In the short term, ENA/USD is likely to consolidate within a volatility band of $0.0846 to $0.0949. The baseline scenario is for price to remain rangebound at depressed levels. A push above the $0.0928 Kijun barrier could see a move toward the upper end of the range, but probability remains low given current momentum. If selling continues and price falls through $0.0846, additional downside may accelerate, extending the prevailing downtrend.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees Ethena's robust on-chain activity as a positive fundamental signal despite the ongoing price weakness. He believes growing user participation and expanding wallet creation could support a recovery once market sentiment shifts. Technical signals remain bearish for now, but the analyst maintains a constructive view given the strong underlying network momentum. "If network expansion continues and selling pressure eases, ENA could be well-positioned for a rebound," he says.

Previously it was reported that renewed bullish momentum in Ethena was driven by strong platform adoption and rising on-chain activity despite concerns over liquidity. The current reversal in technical signals, combined with persistent selling pressure, marks a shift to a more cautious outlook and places the focus on whether ENA can reclaim the $0.0928 resistance or risks accelerating its downtrend below $0.0846.

Source of Data: ENA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.