Ethena jumps 7.17% as Virtune Stablecoin Index ETP addition lifts sentiment

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Ethena jumps 7.17% to $0.0761 today

Highlights

Ethena will see 40.63 million ENA tokens unlocked on July 2, adding near-term supply pressure.
Recent token unlocks and liquidations have weighed on price, though inclusion in the Virtune Stablecoin Index ETP could support institutional demand.
Technical analysis signals short-term bullish momentum with price expected to trade sideways between $0.0726 and $0.0796 over the next few days.

Supply influx risks intensifying pressure as institutional index listing offsets

Ethena faces an imminent supply surge as 40.63 million ENA tokens are set for unlock on July 2, a move that, according to Cryptotimes, stands to increase circulating supply and intensify near-term supply pressures. This follows a month in which 212.5 million tokens were released in multiple cliff events, fueling ongoing liquidations and adding selling pressure to the market. At the same time, the July 1 addition of ENA to the Virtune Stablecoin Index ETP, as reported by Manilatimes, may help broaden institutional access and offset some of the negative supply dynamics.

Mixed momentum signals as intraday buyers test resistance zones

On the technical side, ENA/USD is trading above the 20-period ($0.0731) and 50-period ($0.0726) moving averages on the H1 timeframe while remaining below the long-term 200-period moving average at $0.128. Immediate support is provided by the Ichimoku Kijun at $0.0743. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals a buy, and the Average Directional Index (ADX) is neutral, indicating momentum without strong directionality. Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 62.56 (buy), while Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is overbought and the Stochastic RSI shows a strong sell, highlighting mixed momentum signals. Bull/Bear Power and the Awesome Oscillator both show buyer dominance, supporting intraday bullishness despite oscillator caution.

Sideways trading expected as volatility and upside probability diverge

Over the next 2–3 trading days, ENA/USD is expected to remain within a $0.0726–$0.0796 band, reflecting typical volatility around current levels. The probability for further upside is estimated at 71%, making a downside move less likely. The base scenario anticipates continued sideways trading within this corridor, with a breakout above the upper range opening the way for additional gains, while a decline below $0.0726 would signal further weakness.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees ENA’s current price strength as fragile given clear overhead supply risks. He notes recent token unlocks and the upcoming July 2 event create significant headwinds despite bullish technical signals. Institutional inflows from the Stablecoin Index ETP add a cushion but may not fully offset persistent selling. "Until ENA sustains above $0.0796, I remain cautious and see upside as limited by ongoing supply pressures."

Earlier, analysts noted that Ethena remained under sustained bearish pressure despite increased institutional participation and notable partnerships. With current short-term momentum turning bullish even as a major token unlock approaches, traders should monitor for a breakout above $0.0796 or renewed downside if the $0.0726 support fails.

Source of Data: ENA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.