Solana holds gains but faces ongoing bearish momentum as MACD signals strong sell: weekly analysis

Traders Union
All News
Crypto
Solana gains 14.92% this week

Highlights

Solana trades below key moving averages, reflecting persistent selling pressure and a bearish technical backdrop despite recent gains.
Short-term recovery drove a 14.92% rally to $77.80, but momentum indicators suggest this move is not supported.
SOL is expected to trade between $62.30 and $85.30 in the next week, with downside risk outweighing chances of a breakout.

Ecosystem growth and stablecoin flows strengthen network fundamentals this week

Solana dApps generated $257 million in revenue during Q2 2026, leading all Layer 1 and Layer 2 blockchains for the ninth consecutive quarter. Circle increased its USDC issuance on Solana in June 2026 by minting another $1 billion, pushing the yearly total to $64.25 billion and demonstrating robust stablecoin usage on the network. The network has also introduced an onchain governance system, giving validators more influence in decision-making, and saw the launch of the World prediction market platform within the Phantom wallet using Chainlink oracles.

Persistent bearish bias despite rally as weekly momentum stays weak

On the weekly chart, SOL remains below the MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200, with the MA-20 at $82.14 acting as the nearest resistance and dynamic cap on price action. Key weekly support lies at $62.30, while resistance is identified at $85.30. Weekly momentum indicators, including MACD (Strong Sell) and ADX (Sell), still point to lingering bearishness despite the sharp rally, and oscillators such as RSI, Stochastic RSI, and CCI all signal oversold conditions. Bull/Bear Power indicates sellers still have the upper hand, suggesting the rally is not yet supported by a durable shift in sentiment.

Range-bound outlook ahead as bearish momentum signals downside risk

Looking ahead to the next 7 days, the anticipated price corridor is $62.30 to $85.30, reflecting ongoing heightened volatility. With all four major weekly momentum indicators still bearish, the probability of a sustained upside move above resistance is very low (less than 20%). The baseline scenario is sideways consolidation inside this range, unless SOL breaks below $62.30 to trigger a deeper retracement or above $85.30 to spark further short covering. Current technicals point to a period of range-bound action with downside risk prevailing.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that Solana closed this week with a strong 14.92% gain, but is still trading under all key weekly moving averages. He believes medium- and long-term technical pressure persists, as the MA-20 at $82.14 remains the nearest barrier. Despite impressive network fundamentals, including record dApp revenue and surging USDC activity, weekly indicators such as MACD and ADX remain bearish. Oscillators continue to signal oversold conditions, with sellers maintaining control according to Bull/Bear Power. Kharitonov sees the most likely scenario as sideways consolidation between $62.30 and $85.30, unless a clear break in either direction sparks greater momentum. "As long as SOL stays below its weekly resistances and momentum remains bearish, I remain cautious and see limited upside for the coming week."

Earlier, analysts noted that despite Solana's strong network fundamentals and technical breakouts, broader market weakness continued to limit meaningful upside for SOL. The latest technical and on-chain developments reinforce this view, suggesting traders should closely monitor the $62.30 support for signs of further downside risk amid persistent selling pressure and lack of momentum confirmation.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.