+2.56% for Bitcoin as spot Bitcoin ETF inflows react to weaker US jobs data

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Bitcoin jumps 2.56% today to $61,469

Highlights

Spot Bitcoin ETFs reversed a 10-day outflow streak with $221.7 million in inflows, signaling revived institutional demand after weaker U.S. jobs data.
A dormant address linked to the $293 billion Noah Doe lawsuit moved 500 BTC, causing headline uncertainty without immediate price effects.
BTC/USD faces mixed technical signals, expected to trade mostly sideways between $58,937 and $64,404 with downside favored short-term.

ETF inflows and lawsuit-linked transfer shift institutional sentiment

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the U.S. have marked a turnaround by posting $221.7 million in inflows after a 10-day streak of outflows, reflecting renewed institutional demand following weaker jobs data, according to Crypto. This ETF inflow directly increases buying activity and provides a boost to overall market sentiment, as it points to allocator responsiveness to macroeconomic shifts. In a secondary development, 500 BTC was moved from a dormant address tied to the $293B Noah Doe lawsuit, a transfer that introduces headline-driven uncertainty but with less clear short-term price consequences, News Bitcoin reported.

Support levels and indicator divergence highlight unclear momentum

Technically, BTC is trading below the 20-day and 200-day moving averages, while remaining above the 50-day. The Ichimoku Kijun currently provides support at $60,631. On the four-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) signals a buy, and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI), Average Directional Index (ADX), and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) all indicate a bullish bias. However, Bull/Bear Power is overbought, Stochastic RSI is neutral, and the Awesome Oscillator offers no clear trend signal. Price action remains near the lower edge of the daily range with volatility subdued, suggesting technical divergence and mixed sentiment on intraday horizons.

Rangebound trading favored as upside breakout odds stay limited

Over the short term, BTC is projected to trade within a range of $58,937 to $64,404 as typical volatility persists. The probability of a move above the $64,404 resistance is comparatively low at 35%, implying a greater likelihood of downside or rangebound action. For a bullish case, a close above resistance would be required to shift sentiment. Conversely, a sustained break below Kijun support and the range floor could trigger further selling pressure.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees strengthening institutional sentiment fueling Bitcoin's latest rebound. He notes that the reversal in ETF flows is a meaningful signal for demand while macroeconomic softness in the U.S. acts as a tailwind. Legal developments around dormant wallets add a layer of uncertainty but have not shifted the price structure. Overall, he believes positive flows and risk appetite outweigh caution for now. "The return of significant ETF inflows is a clear vote of confidence from major players — I expect this to provide a solid foundation for Bitcoin to retest higher levels if market sentiment holds up."

Earlier, analysts noted that institutional inflows and renewed accumulation were fostering cautious optimism for Bitcoin despite persistent technical resistance. Continued ETF inflows and shifting market sentiment now reinforce the case for rangebound trading, but investors should closely monitor $60,631 as a key support level given the heightened risk of renewed downside if it breaks.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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