Bitcoin holds gains as Trump reserve plan stalls amid federal agency dispute

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Bitcoin trades flat today near $63,086

Highlights

Policy uncertainty over which U.S. agency will control seized Bitcoin is delaying progress on the proposed Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
U.S. government entities collectively hold about 328,000 BTC, prompting market caution until regulatory and custodial clarity emerges.
BTC/USD trades within a $60,000–$66,929 range, with technical signals broadly bullish but oscillators show mixed momentum, warranting short-term caution.

Strategic reserve delays heighten caution amid agency disputes

According to Crypto, President Trump's proposal to develop a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve has encountered delays as federal agencies remain at odds over which department should assume legal control and custody of seized BTC, creating uncertainty around future regulatory and supply management. Meanwhile, the White House recently acknowledged it is actively structuring the reserve, with Tftc reporting that 328,000 BTC are currently held across several government agencies. This combination of policy uncertainty and the scale of state-held Bitcoin is maintaining a cautious stance among market participants until custodial and regulatory questions are resolved.

Bullish signals diverge as momentum and oscillators conflict

On the technical front, BTC is currently trading above both the 20-period ($63,032) and 50-period ($61,365) moving averages on the H4 timeframe, but remains below the 200-period moving average ($74,652) on the daily chart. The Ichimoku Kijun on the daily sits at $62,974, providing immediate support. Momentum indicators are mixed: the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and the Average Directional Index (ADX) both show strong buy signals, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 55.59, also indicating a buy. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and Bull/Bear Power are both overbought, whereas Stochastic RSI sits in oversold territory, and the Awesome Oscillator remains neutral. This configuration highlights bullish momentum but with notable divergence among oscillators.

Limited upside potential as volatility bands dictate near-term risk

In the coming 2–3 trading days, BTC is expected to remain within a typical volatility band between $60,000 and $66,929. The probability of an upward move is calculated at 57%, suggesting a moderately higher likelihood of a bullish scenario. A decisive break above $66,929 could trigger additional buying pressure and open further upside potential, while a drop below $60,000 would expose the market to stronger selling and potentially deeper retracements within the broader range.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the U.S. government’s ongoing Bitcoin policy debate as a key macro and fundamental factor shaping the current BTC environment. He notes that the unresolved custody question over 328,000 BTC highlights both institutional adoption and regulatory uncertainty, which is causing hesitation among participants. The analyst believes strong momentum signals offer support but the real catalyst will be policy clarity. "If the government moves forward with its Bitcoin Reserve and settles agency control, I expect confidence and demand to rise further."

Earlier, analysts noted that persistent institutional caution and conflicting technical signals were keeping Bitcoin in a range-bound, indecisive state. With new uncertainties arising from regulatory delays surrounding the proposed U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, traders should monitor for impacts on market sentiment and liquidity as a break above $66,929 could trigger accelerated buying momentum.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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