What's behind Zcash's latest price pullback?

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Zcash down 1.12% as privacy rises

Highlights

Over 30% of Zcash’s total supply is now fully shielded, reflecting record adoption of its privacy features.
The increase in shielded coins heightens ZEC’s scarcity premium, differentiating it from other crypto assets despite ongoing price pressure.
Technical signals remain bearish with a 79% probability of declining prices and an expected trade range of $430.69 to $471.09.

Scarcity premium rises as shielded coins reach all-time high

Over 30% of Zcash's total supply has now been fully shielded, marking an all-time high in the adoption of its privacy features, according to Streetinsider. The increased proportion of shielded coins restricts the transparent supply, which may elevate the asset’s scarcity premium and distinguishes ZEC within the broader crypto market. While this technical achievement highlights continued development of core privacy technology, price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Seller dominance weakens as technical momentum turns mixed

On the daily chart, ZEC/USD is currently above its MA-20 at $449.58 but remains below the MA-50 at $455.02, with the MA-200 providing longer-term support at $379.46. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $448.81 acts as immediate support. Indicator readings show the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Awesome Oscillator both point to selling pressure, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) is neutral, indicating no dominant trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 43.72, signaling a sell condition, with the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) also flashing a sell and Bull/Bear Power indicating oversold territory. Stochastic RSI is neutral. The price currently sits mid-range for today’s session, with moderate volatility and mixed momentum signals that suggest the short-term downside momentum is slowing despite prevailing seller dominance.

Rangebound expectations persist as downside risk outweighs upside

Over the next two to three trading days, ZEC/USD is expected to move within a typical volatility band ranging from $430.69 to $471.09. Based on current momentum and indicator readings, there is a 79% probability of a move to the downside and a 21% chance of an upward breakout. The most likely scenario is rangebound trading within these levels; a break above resistance near $471.09 would signal potential bullish follow-through, while a firm close below immediate support could open the door to further declines.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees strong fundamental momentum building around Zcash as the share of shielded supply reaches historic highs. He believes that this on-chain milestone enhances perceived scarcity and showcases real adoption of ZEC's privacy features. While short-term indicators point to continued selling pressure, Karapetjanc remains positive due to the asset's strategic technical positioning and underlying narrative strength. "If ZEC retains support above the $448–$450 area, the backdrop for a sustained rebound will stay intact despite current headwinds," he says.

Earlier, analysts noted that Zcash exhibited strong bullish momentum supported by rising shielded adoption and positive technical indicators. While the current session shows mixed short-term signals and downside risks, traders should monitor for a decisive break above $471.09 or below $448.81, as such moves could set the tone for ZEC's next directional phase.

Source of Data: ZEC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.