XRP ETF outflows hurt trader interest. Can XRP regain momentum?

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XRP slips 0.52% today to $1.0715

Highlights

XRP Ledger's v3.2.0 upgrade achieved 89% validator adoption but faces deployment delays due to less than half of nodes completing the update.
Ripple secured full European MiCA CASP licensing set for July 2026, strengthening regulatory access across the EU market.
XRP trades near $1.07 within a $1.0326–$1.0862 range, with bearish short-term momentum and a 63% probability of further downside.

Upgrades and license boost offset by waning XRP investor activity

The XRP Ledger's v3.2.0 software upgrade reached 89% adoption among validators, clearing the 80% threshold required for activation, but only about 43% of active nodes had completed the upgrade, potentially slowing the deployment of new protocol features, according to Eciks. Ripple also secured a full European MiCA CASP license from Luxembourg as of July 6, 2026, expanding its regulatory standing and opening further avenues for compliant participation in the EU. Meanwhile, institutional and retail activity in XRP waned in early July, with net outflows from XRP ETFs and new daily wallet creation falling below 1,000, data from Techtimes showed, reflecting a period of tempered interest from both investor groups.

Divergent technical signals as short-term strength meets range caps

XRP traded above the 20-day moving average at $1.0683 but remained capped below the 50-day at $1.082 and the 200-day at $1.4476. Immediate support was marked by the Ichimoku Kijun at $1.0684. On the indicator front, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signaled a strong sell, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) was neutral, indicating lack of strong trend strength. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) registered at 45.83 for a sell signal; Stochastic RSI pointed to overbought conditions, and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) was neutral, while the Bull/Bear Power reflected strong buy pressure. The Awesome Oscillator was neutral, illustrating the current push-pull dynamic between buyer dominance and bearish momentum.

Sideways bias as downside risk outweighs upside potential

Looking ahead to the next one to two sessions, XRP is expected to trade within a range from $1.0326 to $1.0862 based on its typical volatility. The probability of an upside move stands at 37%, while a decline has a higher likelihood at 63%. The baseline scenario is for sideways price action within this band; a decisive bullish shift would require a break above resistance, while a bearish scenario may develop if immediate support fails.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees XRP’s technicals and sentiment indicators as mixed at best, with fundamental drivers offering little near-term support. The recent validator upgrade is a structural step, but slow node adoption weighs on network expectations. Institutional and retail participation continues to slide, and price remains capped below key averages. "Until we see renewed demand or a strong technical breakout above $1.0862, I remain defensive on XRP in the short term."

Earlier, analysts noted that the UK's embrace of digital asset infrastructure—highlighting Ripple's expanding regulatory footprint—could provide a competitive edge for both the company and the broader crypto market. With XRP's regulatory advances in the EU and mixed technical signals, market participants should monitor for a decisive break of near-term resistance or support that could shift the current sideways bias.

Source of Data: XRP Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.