Prediction markets overtake sportsbooks in World Cup betting surge

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Prediction markets World Cup betting

Highlights

Kalshi records $31 billion in total June trading volume, with $22.42 billion tied to the FIFA World Cup, far surpassing U.S. sportsbook handle estimates of $2.8–$4.3 billion for the event.
Kalshi and Polymarket capture 78.5% of betting app installs in June, up from about 6% a year ago, while Kalshi's daily active users rise 36% during the tournament and DraftKings falls 36%.
DRW launches a dedicated desk focused on Polymarket and Kalshi, and Bank of America estimates Rothera seizes a 7% U.S. market share in its first month via Robinhood infrastructure.

World Cup trading volumes redefine betting market competition

As reported by CoinDesk, prediction market platforms post record activity during the opening month of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with Kalshi reaching $31 billion in total notional trading volume in June, Polymarket recording $10.8 billion on its international exchange and $3.5 billion on its regulated U.S. platform, and Rothera processing $2 billion in its debut month.

Kalshi says World Cup-specific volume on its platform reaches $22.42 billion, and Dune analytics indicates sports contracts account for about 85% of its overall trading. That compares with projections from gaming research firm Eilers and Krejcik that U.S. legal sportsbooks handle between $2.8 billion and $4.3 billion across the tournament's 104 matches, although final state reporting is still pending.

The growth also highlights how prediction markets extend beyond sports. Kalshi and Polymarket list contracts tied to elections, economic data and entertainment events, giving the platforms a broader trading base than conventional sportsbooks.

Polymarket's position in the U.S. market remains split between its regulated domestic app and its international platform. The article says Allium's wallet analysis shows $571 million of activity on Polymarket's political markets over the past year comes from U.S.-linked wallets, even though the global platform remains geoblocked for U.S. IP addresses, while the company's U.S. product now operates legally after its late-2025 regulatory return.

User growth and Wall Street backing broaden industry impact

Kalshi's momentum accelerates during the tournament after it gains FIFA-related branding and media exposure, though app data cited from Apptopia suggests user growth is already building before its June 26 co-branding deal linked to the World Cup's official prediction market partner. By June 30, Kalshi's daily active users are 36% above their June 15 level, while DraftKings falls 36% from its tournament peak, FanDuel drops 41%, and BetMGM and Caesars each decline 32% over the same period.

Apptopia data shows Kalshi and Polymarket together account for 78.5% of betting app installs across six major platforms tracked through June, up sharply from roughly 6% a year earlier. Kalshi's female user base grows 106% during the tournament, more than double the growth rate among male users, and its female share reaches 33.3%, above the 22% to 23% range reported for DraftKings and FanDuel.

The World Cup also pulls in institutional capital. The article says DRW is building a dedicated prediction market desk focused on Polymarket and Kalshi, while Bank of America estimates Rothera captures a 7% share of the U.S. prediction market in its first month after launching through Robinhood's infrastructure.

Traditional sportsbooks are still reporting record engagement, with BetMGM saying the U.S. versus Belgium round-of-16 match becomes the most-bet soccer game in the history of several major American books and DraftKings putting handle at about five times its 2022 level. But pricing across prediction markets and sportsbooks is increasingly aligned by arbitrage, and user traffic patterns tracked by Apptopia suggest more sportsbook customers are trying Kalshi while fewer Kalshi users are moving back to sportsbook apps.

We previously reported on Robinhood (HOOD) pulling back amid profit-taking and heightened volatility, even as the company emphasized regulatory compliance around its derivatives offering, including event contracts via Robinhood Derivatives, LLC. That piece also noted Robinhood’s broader product push, including the launch of Robinhood Chain and growing activity tied to new trading features—context that helps frame how major platforms are positioning themselves as prediction markets and event-based trading gain traction.

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