Solana slips toward lower recent range as MACD shows strong sell signal: weekly outlook

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Solana slips 2.48% this week

Highlights

Solana remains under persistent selling pressure, trading firmly below key moving averages with momentum and oscillators signaling a bearish trend.
Over the past week, SOL declined 2.48% and continues to trade in the lower part of its range, with weekly volatility at 7.53%.
The expected range for the upcoming week is $70.40 to $81.80, with a high probability of further downside unless $81.80 is reclaimed.

Ecosystem sentiment improves as ETF progress and tokenization initiatives advance

Morgan Stanley’s updated regulatory filing for a spot Solana ETF, which proposes a 0.14% annual management fee and a staking feature for up to 100% of SOL holdings, stands out as a key development pending SEC approval. The Solana Foundation’s collaboration with Japan’s SBI Holdings aims to expand on-chain financial infrastructure and real-world asset tokenization, further strengthening ecosystem growth. Network activity was also bolstered this week after the USDC Treasury minted 250 million USDC on Solana.

Bearish momentum reinforced as weekly signals cluster in negative territory

Weekly technical signals remain uniformly bearish, with SOL entrenched below its 20-, 50-, and 200-week moving averages, signaling persistent downward momentum. The MACD indicates a Strong Sell, with the ADX confirming robust bearish trend strength. RSI and Commodity Channel Index both flag a Sell, while the Stochastic RSI is Neutral — and Bull/Bear Power remains deeply negative at -0.80. The Awesome Oscillator does not contradict this prevailing negative structure, and weekly volatility is measured at 7.53%, keeping prices anchored in the lower end of the stated range.

Sideways-to-lower trajectory favored as bullish break odds stay limited

For the next 7 days, technicals suggest continued sideways or lower trading, with the expected range set between $70.40 and $81.80. Upward movement is unlikely, with less than a 20% probability of a bullish break toward or above $81.80, as all major weekly indicators remain in sell territory. The baseline view is for SOL to hold within the lower half of its range; a bearish scenario would see a break below $74, targeting the bottom of the projected corridor.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the past week as a period marked by consolidation near multi-week lows for Solana, but with notable developments supporting the long-term outlook. He highlights the potential Morgan Stanley spot SOL ETF filing and Solana’s strategic partnership with Japan’s SBI Holdings as significant structural drivers for future institutional adoption. Technical signals remain bearish for now, keeping SOL in the lower band of its projected range, yet high volatility and growing network activity suggest that traders should stay alert for shifts in sentiment. Karapetjanc believes the current setup offers patient investors a chance to position ahead of a possible trend reversal if upcoming catalysts gain traction. "Despite ongoing downward momentum this week, I see increasing fundamental strength and ecosystem growth as strong reasons to watch Solana closely for emerging opportunities in the coming week."

Earlier, analysts noted that Solana’s strong on-chain fundamentals were providing support despite extended price consolidation. With new ecosystem partnerships and ETF developments now emerging against a decidedly bearish technical backdrop, traders should watch for whether SOL can defend the $74 level this week to avert a deeper decline.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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