Oversold conditions limit further selling. Can BTC avoid deeper losses?

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Bitcoin drops 3.26% to $62,816 today

Highlights

Bitcoin ETF inflows turned positive on July 15 as funds added $107.8 million, lifting total ETF AUM to $78 billion.
BlackRock's IBIT holds $60 billion in bitcoin, with sustained institutional inflows into both bitcoin and ether ETFs despite sluggish spot prices.
BTC/USD trades under key moving averages with persistent bearish momentum, setting an expected range of $61,972 to $64,195 for the next sessions.

Institutional inflows and ETF recovery as price faces selling pressure

On July 15, Bitcoin ETF inflows turned positive, with bitcoin funds adding $107.80 million and Blackrock's iShares Bitcoin Trust holdings reaching roughly 734,000 BTC, according to News Bitcoin. Data from Coinstats showed that as of July 16, assets under management for Bitcoin ETFs recovered to approximately $78 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT maintaining a $60 billion share. Institutional demand for both bitcoin and ether ETFs also registered consecutive positive days, as reported by News Bitcoin, suggesting renewed activity at the fund level, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bearish momentum persists as technical resistance limits recovery

On the hourly chart, BTC trades below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, with both well under the long-term 200-period moving average. The Ichimoku Kijun line at $64,158 acts as immediate resistance. Momentum readings show persistent weakness, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) on a Sell signal and the Average Directional Index (ADX) remaining Neutral. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), Commodity Channel Index (CCI), Stochastic RSI, and Bull/Bear Power all indicate oversold conditions and clear seller dominance, which is further confirmed by the Awesome Oscillator Sell signal. Intraday price action is situated near the daily low amid moderate volatility, and momentum indicators confirm a strong bearish environment.

Downside risk prevails as breakout levels define short-term direction

Over the next two to three sessions, BTC is likely to trade within the $61,972 to $64,195 range, representing a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of an upward move is very low, while the likelihood of further downside is high, limiting the chances of any meaningful recovery. If BTC breaks above the $64,158 resistance, it would signal a potential reversal, whereas a drop below $61,972 would indicate renewed downside acceleration.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees continued institutional inflows into crypto ETFs, but notes that price action remains decisively bearish. He observes that technical indicators confirm clear selling dominance, with Bitcoin firmly below its key moving averages and oversold readings across several momentum tools. The potential for a meaningful recovery appears limited unless $64,158 is reclaimed. "Until Bitcoin can break above resistance and shake off persistent selling, I remain defensive on short-term prospects," Kharitonov says.

Previously, analysts noted that Bitcoin was demonstrating resilience amid macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, consolidating within its established range despite external risks. The latest market action, marked by intensifying bearish momentum despite renewed ETF inflows, signals that a decisive move below $61,972 would represent a significant downside risk in the short term.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.