Bitcoin support test at $62,916: Technical outlook

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Bitcoin rises 0.66% to $63,453 today

Highlights

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $265.4 million in net outflows on July 31, 2026, led by significant redemptions from BlackRock's IBIT fund.
BlackRock’s IBIT saw $122.66 million in Bitcoin withdrawn yet maintained $46.52 billion in net assets, emphasizing ETF flows' market impact.
BTC/USD faces mixed momentum signals and overbought readings, with key support at $62,916 and a projected range of $62,677 to $64,229 over the next 2–3 days.

ETF redemptions drive institutional outflows and dampen sector liquidity

US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $265.4 million in net outflows on July 31, 2026, driven by redemptions from BlackRock’s IBIT fund, according to Cryptobriefing and News Bitcoin. The withdrawal of capital reflects subdued institutional demand and may influence overall sector liquidity, with 1,948 Bitcoin worth $122.66 million redeemed by IBIT clients on the same day as reported by Cryptobriefing. BlackRock's IBIT fund maintained $46.52 billion in net assets and held about 739,066 BTC, highlighting the scale of ETF-linked movements shaping market dynamics.

Short-term buying pressure persists amid overbought technical signals

Short-term technical levels show BTC/USD holding above the MA-20 and MA-50 on the hourly chart, while price remains under the long-term MA-200. The Ichimoku Kijun at $62,916 is the nearest support. Momentum is mixed: RSI stands at 66.49 (Buy), while both CCI and Stoch RSI are in overbought territory, suggesting stretched price action. MACD and ADX are neutral, with Bull/Bear Power highlighting buyer dominance in intraday momentum. Moderate volatility and a price gap of $216, along with a close near the session high, reinforce the prevailing short-term buying pressure, though indicator divergence and overbought signals warrant caution.

Balanced breakout risks as BTC trades within defined volatility band

In the next 2–3 trading days, BTC/USD is anticipated to fluctuate within a volatility band of $62,677 to $64,229, with probabilities balanced for both upward and downward breaks. If the price consolidates, a sideways corridor is likely to hold. A clear break above the top of the range opens a bullish scenario, while a move below support could trigger renewed selling momentum.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees the recent outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs as a sign of cautious institutional sentiment, especially with BlackRock's IBIT leading redemptions. Technically, he notes Bitcoin is holding short-term supports but faces resistance on longer timeframes and overbought intraday signals. Kharitonov believes the current setup favors a wait-and-see approach, with no strong catalyst for bullish continuation. "With ETF outflows persisting and mixed technicals, I prefer to remain defensive until there’s a decisive move outside the $62,677–$64,229 range."

Earlier, analysts noted that Bitcoin remained under pressure as buyers struggled to overcome persistent resistance amid mixed institutional activity and cautious sentiment. The current rebound above short- and medium-term averages, despite notable ETF outflows, adds complexity to the outlook and suggests traders should closely monitor whether buyer momentum can sustain a breakout above the prevailing range or risk a renewed downside move if support falters.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.