BTC/USD retains a moderately bullish technical setup on the four-hour chart, although an upside breakout has yet to be confirmed. Bitcoin is trading near $64,700 after recovering from the $62,500-$63,000 area.
The price remains above its longer-term moving averages, preserving the broader upward bias, but resistance is becoming increasingly visible around $65,000-$65,500. Until that zone is cleared decisively, the advance is better viewed as part of a consolidation phase rather than the start of a new leg higher.
Fed outlook and ETF flows support sentiment
The fundamental backdrop has also improved compared with several weeks ago. Weaker U.S. labor-market data and slower economic growth have reduced expectations for further Fed tightening, putting the August 12 U.S. CPI report firmly in focus. Softer inflation would reinforce expectations for a less restrictive policy stance, potentially supporting Bitcoin through lower yields and stronger risk appetite. A stronger CPI print, by contrast, could quickly revive pressure on BTC.
Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows remain another source of support, pointing to continued institutional demand. This is particularly relevant while the price holds above the $63,500-$64,000 area. If ETF inflows persist and incoming macro data do not revive expectations for a more hawkish Fed, Bitcoin could retest $65,500, followed by the $66,500-$67,000 region.
BTC support holds key to recovery outlook
From a technical perspective, initial support is located near $64,000, followed by the more important $63,300-$63,500 zone and then $62,500. As long as Bitcoin remains above $63,500, the recovery scenario remains more compelling. A sustained break above $65,500 would strengthen the bullish setup and open the way toward $66,500-$67,000, while a move below $63,500 would materially weaken the outlook.
As I warned in the article Bitcoin holds above $64,000 as NFP and Middle East risks test recovery, escalation in the Middle East remains an additional risk, as BTC would likely trade as a risk asset in the initial market reaction.
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