PEPE recovery holds but faces overbought momentum near key Ichimoku Kijun support: weekly forecast

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Pepe rises 14.68% this week

Highlights

Pepe rose 14.68% to $0.0000038 over the past week, ending at the top of its recent trading range.
The structure is technically bullish above key averages, though momentum indicators show the asset is overbought and trend confirmation is lacking.
The 7-day expected range is $0.000003577 to $0.00000456, with near-term support at $0.000003755 and high odds of further upside.

Whale outflows and weak sentiment curb upside momentum during meme coin rotation

Over the past week, PEPE saw pressure from whale wallets scaling back holdings, according to openPR.com and CoinEdition, which weighed on sentiment and limited fresh buying interest. Weak capital flows and subdued trader sentiment have challenged PEPE's ability to extend gains, with technical traders closely monitoring key support and resistance zones as meme coin market rotation continues. Despite the quieter backdrop, PEPE retains a benchmark role in the meme sector and draws renewed focus when liquidity revives.

Overbought signals emerge as momentum outpaces trend on elevated volatility

The daily chart shows a move is forming but has yet to confirm a clear trend, with volatility elevated at 12.84%. Momentum reflects a sharp move higher without a sustained trend, highlighted by a Stochastic RSI deep in the overbought zone at 99.39 while both RSI and CCI remain neutral. MACD signals strong buy momentum, but the overbought Stochastic RSI suggests the rally may be losing steam. The nearest support is the Ichimoku Kijun at $0.000003755, just below current price, and there is no published resistance above the recent highs.

Upside bias persists into next week with reversal risks below key support

For the next 7 days, the expected range is $0.000003577 to $0.00000456. There is a very high probability of an increase and a very low probability of a decrease. The base case is a pause or limited follow-through above support at $0.000003755, with potential for further upside if the move extends through the upper end of the expected range. A reversal below the Kijun support would open the way for a deeper pullback.

Sholanke Dele, market strategist, observes that Pepe held near $0.0000038 this week, with the rally losing pace as technical signals grow stretched. He notes that whale wallets scaling back positions has weighed on sentiment, and subdued capital flows remain a challenge for further gains. Elevated volatility at 12.84% and a deep overbought Stochastic RSI at 99.39 suggest a cooling period, even as MACD retains buy momentum. Dele expects the base case to be a pause near the Ichimoku Kijun support at $0.000003755, warning that a break below could open the way for a deeper pullback within the $0.000003577 to $0.00000456 range. "The market is at risk of stalling here — unless fresh flows revive conviction, I see little reason to trust the upside above support next week."

Earlier, analysts noted that Pepe’s recovery potential was limited by weak capital inflows and the need for new liquidity catalysts. The latest price action adds a new dimension as heightened volatility and institutional flows test support near $0.000003755, making the reaction at this level a key signal for short-term trend direction.

Source of Data: PEPE Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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