CryptoQuant warns bitcoin correction may near as trader profits rise

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CryptoQuant warns bitcoin correction

Highlights

CryptoQuant data show short-term bitcoin traders' onchain unrealized profit margin has reached 33%, the highest in 21 months, increasing profit-taking risk.
Altcoin selling pressure intensified as seven-day cumulative inflow transactions hit 76,000 and 51,000 addresses deposited altcoins on exchanges, both highest since October 2025.
Bitcoin spot demand dropped by 170,000 BTC in 30 days while speculative futures demand slowed, with key supports identified at $80,000, $71,000, and $67,000.

Onchain indicators point to profit-taking risk

As reported by The Block, citing CryptoQuant, short-term traders' onchain unrealized profit margin has climbed to 33%, its highest level in 21 months, a level that Julio Moreno, the firm's head of research, says has historically encouraged investors to lock in gains.

Moreno says bitcoin holders realized 25,700 BTC in profit on Sept. 22, the largest single day of 2026. He adds that heavy profit-taking after a strong rally has often come before local market tops.

Selling pressure is also appearing in altcoins. The seven-day cumulative number of altcoin inflow transactions has risen to 76,000, the highest since Oct. 17, 2025, while the number of addresses depositing altcoins on exchanges has reached 51,000, the highest since October 2025.

Moreno says the increase is broad-based rather than driven by a small number of large wallets. When holders move coins to exchanges, they usually intend to sell, he wrote.

Cooling demand tests rally durability

CryptoQuant says bitcoin demand is slowing in both spot and futures markets, reducing support for further gains. Apparent spot demand has contracted by 170,000 BTC over the past 30 days, while speculative futures demand growth has slowed sharply from 164,000 BTC on Sept. 14 to 16,000 BTC on Sept. 29.

Moreno says the recent rally has been driven mainly by futures activity, and that without fresh demand it becomes harder for prices to keep climbing. He describes the market as still bullish, but increasingly stretched.

If bitcoin corrects, Moreno identifies the 365-day moving average near $80,000 as the first support level. Further support sits near the 200-day moving average at $71,000 and the trader onchain realized price around $67,000, levels he says would imply a healthy consolidation rather than a reversal if they hold.

Our earlier coverage of the Federal Reserve’s communication debate looked at how officials are weighing a shift toward less frequent or less detailed guidance, and the risks that could create more uncertainty for households, businesses, and markets. We noted that reducing transparency about the policy framework can raise volatility, influence borrowing costs, and reshape interest-rate expectations—factors that often ripple into broader risk-asset sentiment, including crypto.

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