Stellar weekly outlook: Can XLM break resistance with surging on-chain and stablecoin activity?

Traders Union
All News
Crypto
Stellar rises 0.36% this week

Highlights

Stellar trades at $0.2237, maintaining a bullish trend above key moving averages and signaling ongoing upside potential.
Technical momentum remains positive, with MACD and Bull/Bear Power indicating buy signals and Stochastic RSI showing an oversold divergence.
Expected range for the week is $0.2075 to $0.2398, with resistance at $0.2371 and support at $0.2065.

Smart contract upgrade and fund launch propel Stellar’s institutional demand this week

Stellar saw heightened institutional and stablecoin activity over the past week, with State Street Galaxy launching its Onchain Liquidity Sweep Fund on the network September 29, according to Crypto Daily. BVNK expanded its stablecoin infrastructure on Stellar, while the network broke an all-time transaction speed record and rolled out a major smart contract upgrade as it marked its 11th anniversary, U.Today reported. Support was further reinforced by surging trading volumes tied to the completion of the Soroban and Protocol 20 upgrades, highlighting increased demand for blockchain utility, though most settlement continues to occur via stablecoins.

Buy signals persist as technical momentum diverges with oversold oscillators

The daily setup points to a sustained move higher with a firm trend. Momentum indicators remain supportive, with MACD and Bull/Bear Power both signaling a buy, while volatility has reached 14.82% in the last week. RSI stays in the neutral zone at 58.769, while Stochastic RSI shows an oversold condition, creating a divergence with the active trend. The nearest support is seen at $0.2065, alongside the Kijun support at $0.2047, with resistance at $0.2371.

Bullish bias dominates with upside breakout in focus for next week

In the week ahead, the expected range is $0.2075 to $0.2398. There is a 78% probability of an increase and a 22% probability of a decrease. The base case scenario calls for price action to continue trending within this range. A bullish breakout above $0.2371 would open the way for further gains, while a drop below $0.2065 support could see sellers regain the initiative.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that institutional engagement continues to shape Stellar’s outlook as XLM holds the $0.22 area with muted volatility. He observes that recent developments — including State Street Galaxy’s fund launch, BVNK’s expanded stablecoin support, and all-time transaction speed records — provide important support for the network’s real-world adoption narrative. On the technical side, momentum indicators like MACD and Bull/Bear Power remain in buy territory on the daily chart, but RSI is neutral at 58.769, and the Stochastic RSI’s oversold reading diverges from an active upward trend, suggesting caution. In his view, the expected range for the coming week is $0.2075–0.2398, with the base case for sideways movement unless resistance at $0.2371 is breached or support at $0.2065 fails. Kharitonov believes that while momentum and adoption are encouraging, the probability of upside is not overwhelming and downside risks remain present. "Until XLM makes a decisive move above $0.2371, I stay cautious — base case is range trading and avoiding premature upside bets."

Previously it was reported that analysts viewed Stellar’s growth in real-world asset tokenization and network achievements as supportive of a constructive long-term outlook. The current setup adds further confirmation, with institutional engagement, stablecoin expansion, and heightened volatility positioning the $0.2371 resistance as a pivotal level for tracking near-term price momentum.

Source of Data: XLM Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.