Aave price outlook: Persistent bearish momentum and a critical support test

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Aave drops 7.3% to $158.89 today

Highlights

Aave V4 reached over $300 million in deposits and saw its total value locked grow by 82% in September.
Coinbase deposited $4.9 million in tokenized stocks to Aave V4 within 17 days, expanding collateral options for users.
AAVE/USD fell 7.3% for the day with technical signals firmly bearish and the price expected to consolidate between $152.69 to $165.09.

Protocol expansion accelerates despite persistent price headwinds

Aave V4 surpassed $300 million in total deposits, signaling a wave of new liquidity entering the protocol, according to Coinfomania. Total value locked on Aave V4 also rose by 82% in September with over $400 million in active loans, reflecting rapid expansion in platform usage as reported by Tokenpost. Furthermore, Coinbase added $4.9 million in tokenized stocks to Aave V4 over 17 days, broadening available collateral for users. These developments indicate robust growth in Aave’s decentralized finance activity, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bearish intraday momentum persists amid oversold technical indicators

AAVE/USD is trading below the MA-20 at $165.49 and the MA-50 at $167.65 on the H1 chart, with the Ichimoku Kijun level at $166.77 providing immediate resistance. The daily MA-200 at $103.18 acts as long-term support. Momentum signals remain bearish: MACD, ADX, and Awesome Oscillator all register sell signals, while RSI, CCI, and Stochastic RSI point to oversold conditions. Bull/Bear Power confirms that sellers dominate the intraday momentum, and price remains near the day's lows in a highly volatile session.

Downside risk elevated as range-bound trading expected

Over the next 2–3 trading days, AAVE is expected to fluctuate within a $152.69 to $165.09 range. The likelihood of an upside move is currently very low given persistent downside momentum, while the probability of further decline is high. Consolidation within the present corridor is probable in the baseline scenario. A bullish breakout would require a close above $166.77, while a breach below $152.69 would reinforce the short-term bearish scenario.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees strong fundamental growth underpinning Aave despite current market pressure. He notes that surging deposits and robust institutional adoption highlight major confidence in the protocol’s decentralized finance ecosystem. Karapetjanc believes the latest inflows and active loans are setting the stage for a potential recovery once market momentum turns. "With such rapid adoption and record liquidity, I expect Aave to show leadership among DeFi assets as soon as selling pressure eases."

Earlier, analysts noted that Aave’s price trend had turned mixed as governance initiatives and protocol integrations balanced technical risks. The current article highlights persistent bearish momentum despite strong growth in protocol usage, with downside risk intensifying if price fails to hold above $152.69.

Source of Data: AAVE Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.