Solana price prediction: Can Alpenglow unlock SOL’s next rally?

Traders Union
All News
Crypto
Solana gains 1.32% today to $105.81

Highlights

SkyAI exited its Solana holdings, raising $223.8 million in cash and starting a $201.3 million buyback for shareholders.
151 Solana validators, controlling 20.3% of the network, are unprepared for the upcoming Alpenglow protocol upgrade, contributing to operational uncertainty.
SOL trades below key short-term averages with a projected 2 to 3 day range of $103.08 to $107.56 as indicators yield mixed signals.

SkyAI liquidation and validator readiness drive volatility as major upgrade nears

A major development this week has been SkyAI's exit from its Solana holdings, as the former public treasury holder finalized the sale of its entire SOL portfolio by October 16, 2026, raising approximately $223.8 million in cash and initiating a $201.3 million share and warrant buyback for its own shareholders, according to Cryptonomist. This large-scale liquidation has temporarily shifted the supply-demand balance and may have prompted short-term volatility as institutional liquidity is reallocated. Meanwhile, Cryptobriefing reported on October 20, 2026, that 151 Solana validators—representing 20.3% of network stake—remained unprepared for the imminent Alpenglow network upgrade, injecting operational uncertainty ahead of a critical protocol transition. The upcoming Alpenglow upgrade, cited by CoinDesk as Solana's most significant consensus overhaul since 2020, underpins long-term sentiment and continues to shape market expectations.

Mixed buy signals and narrow resistance shape technical momentum zones

On the hourly timeframe, SOL is trading below the MA-20 at $106.08 but remains above the MA-50 at $105.34. On the daily chart, the asset is also above the MA-200 at $87.88, highlighting the importance of these support zones. The Ichimoku Kijun at $106.02 acts as immediate resistance. Momentum indicators present a mixed outlook: MACD and ADX both signal buy momentum, while RSI is neutral at 52.39 and Stochastic RSI is in an oversold condition. CCI and Awesome Oscillator remain neutral, and Bull/Bear Power suggests intraday buyers still maintain dominance.

Bullish bias holds as volatility persists within tight trading range

Over the next two to three sessions, the anticipated price range for SOL is $103.08 to $107.56, reflecting a volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of an upward move is estimated at 65%, indicating that while upward continuation is favored, downside risks are not fully excluded. The baseline scenario calls for range-bound action between nearby support and resistance, with a bullish breakout requiring a confirmed move above the Ichimoku Kijun level at $106.02 and a bearish scenario triggered by a decisive drop below short-term support.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Solana supported by constructive macro and fundamental drivers, despite recent institutional exits. He believes the SkyAI sell-off has largely been absorbed by markets, and network evolution with the Alpenglow upgrade underpins long-term confidence. The analyst notes current technical resilience and robust sentiment, with buyers maintaining a moderate edge. 'If SOL holds above key support and the network upgrade proceeds smoothly, the next leg higher is well within reach,' says Karapetjanc.

Previously it was reported that Solana’s role in facilitating large-scale stablecoin transactions was expanding through strategic integrations with major technology and financial platforms. With the recent completion of SkyAI’s Solana liquidation and the operational uncertainties tied to the Alpenglow upgrade, traders should closely monitor the $106.02 resistance—where a breakout could define the next directional move for SOL.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.