Bitcoin midterm-bottom pattern faces timing test as QQQ signals stay mixed

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Bitcoin midterm-bottom timing

Highlights

Bitcoin's 2024 low of $57,850 on July 1 came 125 days before Election Day, diverging from its post-midterm bottoming pattern in previous cycles.
In the past, bitcoin dropped 29% before the 2018 midterms and 37% before 2022, showing consistent pre-election weakness despite this cycle's early bottom and recent 6% 30-day decline.
Invesco QQQ Trust fell 17% in the three months before the 2022 midterms but gained 17% before 2014, indicating bitcoin's election period volatility is more asset-specific rather than a broad risk asset trend.

Market cycle pattern diverges before vote

As reported by CoinDesk, bitcoin reached major bear-market lows shortly after the 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterm elections, but its lowest price this year came 125 days before Election Day.

Earlier cycles saw bitcoin bottom in January 2015, December 2018 and November 2022, or about 71, 38 and 13 days after election day, respectively. In the current cycle, bitcoin touched $57,850 on July 1 and then recovered to about $81,455 by Oct. 22, leaving it roughly 40% above that low despite a 6% decline over the past 30 days.

Historical returns also show notable weakness in the run-up to past midterms. Bitcoin fell about 29% in the six months before the 2018 election and 37% before the 2022 vote, reinforcing the view that the asset often weakens around this part of the political calendar, even if the exact bottom date varies from cycle to cycle.

QQQ comparison points to crypto-specific pressure

Technology stocks show some similar stress around midterms, but the pattern is less uniform than bitcoin's. The Invesco QQQ Trust fell about 23% from the end of September to its December 2018 low, with much of that drop coming after election day, and it declined 17% in the three months before the 2022 vote.

Still, QQQ gained 17% in the six months before the 2014 midterms, suggesting election-related weakness does not appear as consistently in large technology stocks. Over the past 30 days, both bitcoin and QQQ are down roughly 6%, but over 90 days bitcoin remains up 26% versus a 3% gain for QQQ.

QQQ's recent pullback followed an all-time high of $762.86 on Oct. 6. The comparison suggests bitcoin's recurring weakness around midterms is more closely tied to its own market cycles than to a broader election effect across risk assets.

Our earlier article on the U.S. midterm elections tracked a late-campaign surge in Republican advertising spending as polls tightened, with more money flowing into races once considered safe. We noted that elevated fuel costs and wider affordability pressures were shaping voter priorities and forcing both parties to adjust strategy in the closing weeks before Election Day.

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