Bitcoin, S&P 500 point to post-midterm gains in U.S. markets

Traders Union
All News
Crypto
Bitcoin & S&P 500 post-midterm gains

Top Stories

Editors' Picks

Stocks

Crypto

Economics

Currencies

Commodities

Business & Wealth

Market Voices

Oleksii Zaichenko

28.10.2026

Bitcoin, S&P 500 point to post-midterm gains in U.S. markets — Bitcoin, stocks: post-midterm rally

With the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm elections approaching, historical market patterns suggest both bitcoin and U.S. equities could post solid gains over the following 12 months. The comparison comes as investors weigh whether political gridlock in Washington and bitcoin's separate four-year halving cycle are the stronger driver of past returns.

Highlights

Bitcoin has gained an average of 53.7% in the 12 months following the past three U.S. midterm elections, excluding 2010.
The S&P 500 has risen an average of 15.17% in the year after U.S. midterm elections since 1950, more than double typical annual gains.
CoinDesk analysis suggests bitcoin's post-midterm rallies may align more with its four-year halving cycle than with political events alone.

Historical returns after midterm votes

As reported by CoinDesk, bitcoin has gained an average of 53.7% in the 12 months following the past three U.S. midterm elections, excluding 2010, when the cryptocurrency market remained small and peripheral.

Since bitcoin's launch in 2009, the market has gone through four U.S. midterm cycles. In the three more established post-election periods, the data analyzed by CoinDesk shows a much stronger average advance than the pattern seen in U.S. equities after midterms.

The S&P 500 has risen an average of 15.17% in the year after U.S. midterm elections since 1950. That is more than double the index's average gain in other years, reinforcing the long-held view that midterm cycles tend to favor risk assets once election uncertainty passes.

Political and crypto cycle implications

A Democratic takeover of at least one chamber of Congress could intensify disputes over federal debt, defense spending and President Donald Trump's crypto ties. Even so, markets have largely priced in the prospect of divided government, limiting the chance of a major surprise from the election outcome alone.

For bitcoin, the post-midterm pattern may not be purely political. The article notes that the cryptocurrency's four-year halving cycle could better explain those rallies, suggesting that supply-side dynamics and election timing may be overlapping rather than operating independently.

In our earlier article on rising U.S. Treasury yields and the widening federal deficit, we explained how long-term borrowing costs are squeezing households through higher mortgage rates while also swelling federal interest expenses as annual deficits near $2 trillion. We also noted that with divided government likely after the midterms, political gridlock could limit the chances of a near-term fiscal deal, keeping funding pressures elevated and adding uncertainty for risk assets.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

Did you like the article?

Editor's Picks for You

France's crypto market matures as regulation reshapes the industry

By Olena Litvinenko
17 hours ago

France's crypto market matures as regulation reshapes the industry

Editors' Picks

SK Hynix’s rise reshapes the global chip industry and economy

By Dmytro Kharkov
20 hours ago

SK Hynix’s rise reshapes the global chip industry and economy

Editors' Picks

Binance hack: The biggest theft in crypto history

By Eugene Komchuk
22 hours ago

Binance hack: The biggest theft in crypto history

Editors' Picks

All Editors' Top Picks

Latest S&P 500 News

Weiss Ratings analysis shows small-cap materials and industrials lead sell-off while grocers hold up

By Ivan Andriyenko
8 hours ago

Weiss Ratings analysis shows small-cap materials and industrials lead sell-off while grocers hold up

Stocks

Wall Street tech sell-off deepens as Intel slump drags U.S. indexes

By Artem Shendetskii
9 hours ago

Wall Street tech sell-off deepens as Intel slump drags U.S. indexes

Stocks

#Australia #Amazon #S&P 500

S&P 500 falls nearly 2% as tech earnings disappoint and weak cash flows trigger broad selloff

By Oleg Tkachenko
14 hours ago

S&P 500 falls nearly 2% as tech earnings disappoint and weak cash flows trigger broad selloff

Stocks

#Forecast #S&P 500

All S&P 500 News

Olena Litvinenko
17 hours ago

France's crypto market matures as regulation reshapes the industry

Dmytro Kharkov
20 hours ago

SK Hynix’s rise reshapes the global chip industry and economy

Eugene Komchuk
22 hours ago

Binance hack: The biggest theft in crypto history

Ksenia Gerey
Yesterday

From PlayStation to crypto: Why Sony is building its own blockchain

Oleg Tkachenko
Yesterday

Google loses billions: What’s behind Alphabet’s stock crash?

Daria Chernytska
5 min ago

Domestic consumption drove GDP growth by 2.1 points in 2026, Xinhua notes

Eugene Komchuk
15 min ago

Scott Melker: Dan Held questions whether crypto exchange price gaps are true arbitrage

Mikhail Vnuchkov
30 min ago

Simon Dixon: Hacker deposited $60M stolen USDT into Aave and borrowed $44.6M in ETH

Yaroslav Dmytrenko
3 hours ago

Markets including gold and Bitcoin are described as crashing, Pushpendra Singh writes

Pavlo Kot
4 hours ago

Stacy Herbert: Fifth Bitcoin Zone inaugurated at CUBO San Juan Opico

Top News

Olga Shendetskaya
15 hours ago

Oil prices jump as tanker attack threatens Strait of Hormuz shipments

Oil prices jump as tanker attack threatens Strait of Hormuz shipments

Eugene Komchuk
16 hours ago

Wall Street expects crypto market to recover quickly from Binance hack

Wall Street expects crypto market to recover quickly from Binance hack

Igor Krasulya
17 hours ago

Nasdaq-100 futures tumble as AI spending worries hit tech stocks

Nasdaq-100 futures tumble as AI spending worries hit tech stocks

Parshwa Turakhiya
20 hours ago

Trezor warns of possible crypto wallet implant linked to CryptoBilis

Trezor warns of possible crypto wallet implant linked to CryptoBilis

Dmytro Kharkov
20 hours ago

SK Hynix’s rise reshapes the global chip industry and economy

SK Hynix’s rise reshapes the global chip industry and economy

Top 5 companies for you

United States

Live News

Andrey Mastykin
Now

Eurozone economy slows as France slips into recession fears

Anton Kharitonov
Now

EUR/USD recovery stalls near 1.1210 as dollar retains its fundamental advantage

Anastasiia Chabaniuk
Now

Binance launches stolen asset recovery and allocates $6.34 billion to cover losses

Mykhailo Ihnatenko
Now

AMD stock drops over 7% as Intel outlook hits semiconductor sentiment

Jose Antonio Gastelum
Now

Circle phases out old USDC bridge as CCTP V2 takes over

© IAFT Ltd., 2010-2026 All rights to the website are owned by IAFT Ltd.,
Registration number - HE 336186

Risk disclosure:

Information on the TradersUnion.com website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any motive or suggestion to visitors to invest money. Moreover, we hereby warn you that trading on the Forex and CFD markets is always a high risk. According to the statistics, 75-89% of customers lose the funds invested and only 11-25% of traders earn a profit. Trading in futures and options carries substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor.

That is why you should only invest money that you are prepared — or can afford — to lose at such high risks. Tradersunion.com does not provide any financial services, including investment or financial advisory services. Also, the Traders Union is not a broker and does not get money for trading in the Forex or CFD markets. Our website only provides information on brokers and the markets and helps its users to select the best brokerage company based on detailed information and objective analysis of brokers.
Disclaimer:

Traders Union (TradersUnion.com) shall not be liable for the consequences of trading decisions made by the Client and for the possible loss of his capital resulting from the use of this website and information published on it.

Forex market, CFD and cryptocurrency trading involves high risks and is not suitable for everyone. Before investing money, you need to adequately assess the level of your expertise and be aware of the risks, particularly in the context of trading with leverage. The information on this website is not intended for distribution or use by any person in any country or jurisdiction, where such distribution or use would be in violation of the local law or regulation. Any payments by Traders Union (TradersUnion.com) to the users of our website shall be legally interpreted solely as an incentive on our part for the activity on the website in the form of a deduction of a part of the advertising income; they shall not be a subject of any claims of our users or our obligations, a subject of disputes, as well as cannot be considered in relation to the services provided to users by brokers, both in fact and in their completeness and volume. The administration of the website shall not be liable for the content of user comments and reviews about the companies and shall not verify whether the authors of the reviews are indeed real clients of a specific company. All reviews, both negative and positive are published on the website without verification of their reliability; only offensive reviews that call for violence or any kind of discrimination and also reviews published from one group of IP addresses are moderated and removed. The authors of the materials shall be fully liable for the accuracy, completeness and impartiality of any information in the articles and reviews, including in the context of their use or mention of any brand names or trademarks. All mentions of the names of companies and their brands in any materials on the website shall be made in the context of communication of socially important information to the people about their activities by independent journalists, who are the authors. All evaluations and indicators on the website express the subjective opinion of the authors of the reviews (articles) and shall not be viewed as accurate statements and be a subject of disputes and claims against Traders Union.
Disclosure of advertisers and revenues:

All the services on the Tradersunion.com website are free for you to use. Our team spends thousands of hours per annum researching brokers and gathering information about them to help investors all over the world to choose reliable companies and to avoid fraudsters.

Indeed, the curating, sourcing, and organization of this process requires substantial financial investment by Tradersunion.com, which the website earns in the form of advertising payments. There are two types of advertising services on the website — direct advertising or partner (broker) participation programs. However, no services purchased by our partners shall affect the recommendations on our website, or our opinions, or ratings. Our ratings are based on our objective rating criteria and methodology; and the results are always equally and fairly applied to each broker. The work of our content authors and research groups does not involve any interaction with our advertisers and they do not have access to data concerning the amount of advertising purchased. For over 10 years we consider our independence, absolute openness, and objectivity as our main priority. Please follow the links to each of our affiliated broker’s websites. This will help Tradersunion.com to continue to provide our services to you for free.