Chainlink tests support at $10.54 as institutional partnerships struggle to offset losses: weekly outlook

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Chainlink falls 8.57% this week

Highlights

Chainlink trades at $11.1, down 8.57% over the past week and below key short and medium-term averages.
The long-term trend remains bearish with further downside indicated and neutral readings from secondary momentum indicators.
Price is expected to range between $10.31 and $11.88, with over 80% probability for a decrease unless resistance at $12.02 is exceeded.

Institutional expansion accelerates as new DeFi collaborations boost presence

Chainlink expanded its institutional reach this week, most notably by announcing a strategic partnership with Hanwha Investment & Securities to tokenize and collateralize real-world assets worldwide, according to ADVFN. The official rollout of 24/7 pricing for tokenized assets on Aave and the expanded Polymarket collaboration with the launch of gold and silver trading further deepened LINK's presence across DeFi, PR Newswire reported. Chainlink also strengthened its partnership with S&P Global Ratings to bring Vault Risk Assessment data on-chain, while the platform saw public backing from U.S. Senator Steve Daines ahead of the Link: NYC summit.

Downside momentum strengthens over the week as MACD and ADX confirm trend

On the daily chart, a sustained move lower with a firm trend is in place, highlighted by a volatility reading of 14.04%. The MACD and ADX both signal further downside momentum, while readings from RSI, CCI, and Stochastic RSI remain neutral. Immediate support sits at $10.54, while resistance is identified at $12.02, reinforced by the Ichimoku Kijun at $12.76.

Bearish bias dominates next week unless $12.02 resistance is reclaimed

Over the coming week, price is expected to move within a range of $10.31 to $11.88. The probability of an increase is very low (less than 20%), while the probability of a decrease is very high (more than 80%). The base case calls for continued trading within this zone. A break above resistance at $12.02 would challenge the bearish view, but a move below $10.54 would open the door to further declines.

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, notes that Chainlink (LINK) fell more than 8% this week to near $11, as steady technical pressure outweighed a string of high-profile institutional deals. He sees promising sentiment from recent partnerships, including the Hanwha collaboration, Aave's 24/7 pricing launch, and Senator Daines' backing, but points out that sentiment alone has struggled to reverse the clear downside momentum. On the daily chart, both MACD and ADX confirm a bearish tilt, while volatility remains elevated at 14.04%. He expects LINK to remain rangebound between $10.31 and $11.88, with a move below $10.54 likely opening the door for further declines. "Despite institutional tailwinds, the chart structure points lower—until $12.02 breaks, I remain defensive this week."

Previously it was reported that Chainlink was experiencing persistent downside momentum despite the announcement of institutional partnerships and new infrastructure rollouts. The current analysis further supports this bearish outlook, with a high probability of continued trading below resistance at $12.02 and a crucial focus on whether $10.54 can hold as support in the days ahead.

Source of Data: LINK Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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