BTC weekly outlook: Can Bitcoin recover after heavy U.S. ETF outflows hit sentiment?

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Bitcoin falls 3.86% this week

Highlights

Bitcoin fell 3.86% over the last 7 days to $78,404, losing short-term momentum but holding above its 200-day average.
Daily chart shows a move into the lower part of the weekly range with sell signals from MACD and ADX, and CCI entering oversold territory, creating potential for a rebound.
Expected 7-day range is $75,416 to $81,391 with a 61% probability of further downside, and key support at $76,325.

ETF redemptions accelerate as election and security concerns hit sentiment

Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. saw the largest outflows since June, with $1.04 billion withdrawn on November 1 and 4, according to Quartz. Additional ETF outflows of $1.3 billion across Bitcoin and Ethereum were reported from October 30 to November 2 by 24/7 Wall St., reflecting investor reactions to election uncertainty and a Binance security breach. Meanwhile, Strategy Inc. confirmed it purchased 811 Bitcoin using proceeds from stock sales, according to Yahoo Finance.

Momentum remains negative over the week as CCI signals potential rebound

The daily chart shows Bitcoin settling in the lower part of its weekly range, with momentum indicators diverging. MACD and ADX both continue to signal sell, while CCI enters an oversold zone at -130.37, introducing potential for a near-term rebound. With 7.4% volatility, price action is caught between support at $76,325 and resistance at the MA-20 and Ichimoku Kijun near $80,422–$80,611. This reflects an emerging move lower that is not yet confirmed, with daily momentum pointing to further downside risk but some signals hinting at possible exhaustion.

Choppy downside bias seen next week as sellers hold below resistance

For the next 7 days, the expected range is $75,416 to $81,391, with a 39% probability of an increase and 61% chance of a decrease. The base case anticipates further choppy action inside this band, as sellers hold the upper hand. A close above resistance at $80,422 could prompt a run to the top of the range near $81,391. Conversely, sustained weakness below $76,325 would open the door to further declines toward $75,416.

Sholanke Dele, market strategist, sees this week as a decisive test for Bitcoin, shaped by sharply negative sentiment after record ETF outflows and renewed security worries. He believes the daily technical picture is fragile, with price stuck near $78,400, key support at $76,325, and momentum firmly tilted to the downside. The heavy $1.3 billion in ETF outflows, coupled with continued sell signals from MACD and lackluster demand, suggest sellers have the upper hand for now. Still, the CCI’s move into oversold and volatility at 7.4% hint at the risk of short-term rebounds. "Until we see a solid close above resistance at $80,422, my stance stays defensive — sellers remain in control and caution is warranted this week."

Earlier, analysts noted that ongoing political shifts and stalled regulatory reforms had left the U.S. cryptocurrency industry facing heightened uncertainty and the risk of further disruption. The current spike in ETF outflows and price volatility adds to this landscape, making the $76,325 support level a critical threshold to monitor for signs of renewed downside pressure in the coming week.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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