ETH climbs over 6% after strong session despite persistent ETF outflows

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Ethereum rises 6.39% today on ETF shift

Highlights

U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs have lost $1.3 billion in ETH over the past month, with BlackRock's iShares Ethereum Trust seeing outflows of 580,145 ETH.
Total net assets in these ETFs now stand between $13.18 billion and $13.32 billion, representing about 4.8% of Ethereum's market value as balances on exchanges fall to a seven-year low.
ETH/USD recently gained 6.39% and is forecast to trade between $2,191 and $2,534 over five days, with technical signals skewed toward seller dominance and a 73% likelihood of a downward move.

ETF asset declines contrast with record-low exchange holdings

Ethereum is seeing sustained outflows from U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs, including a loss of roughly 580,145 ETH—about $1.3 billion—from BlackRock's iShares Ethereum Trust in the past month. Total net assets for these ETFs have fallen to between $13.18 billion and $13.32 billion, accounting for around 4.8% of Ethereum’s total market value. At the same time, balances of Ethereum held on global exchanges have dropped to a seven-year low, while continued ecosystem upgrades and corporate staking activity remain in focus.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes persistent ETF outflows and weak momentum signals despite Ethereum's price jump. He sees Ethereum's rally as fragile, with technical resistance and negative sentiment keeping upside limited. He highlights that sellers remain active, as MACD, ADX, and BBP show weak buying demand. Exchange ETH balances falling to a seven-year low could add near-term pressure. "The current setup suggests any gains above $2,508 are likely to be short-lived unless the sentiment and flows shift, so traders should remain defensive here."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, believes the resilience of the Ethereum ecosystem is driving renewed bullish interest. He sees continued upgrades and growing corporate staking as proof of strong underlying fundamentals, despite short-term ETF outflows. The constructive long-term structure suggests further growth is achievable if resistance at $2,508 is cleared. "With net assets still robust and innovation accelerating, I expect Ethereum to attract new capital and retest higher levels soon."

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, sees a technical setup that favors rangebound trading for now. He flags the divergence between exchange outflows and weak momentum as a tactical clue for volatility spikes. A potential breakout above $2,508 could offer a contrarian entry for aggressive traders. "Traders should watch for sharp moves near key levels — the combination of low supply and mixed sentiment creates room for tactical plays this week."

Mixed momentum signals cap gains despite bullish price structure

ETH/USD is trading above its 20-day moving average at $2,354 and the 200-day moving average at $2,157, but remains just below the 50-day moving average at $2,508. This setup signals a short-term bullish tone with long-term positive structure, while medium-term resistance is still a factor. The nearest support is at $2,379, with resistance defined at $2,508. Momentum readings show the MACD and Average Directional Index (ADX) both signaling to sell, indicating weak underlying buying pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), Stochastic RSI, and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) are all neutral, while Bull/Bear Power (BBP) is negative, supporting the view that sellers remain active intraday. Today's $146.14 (6.39%) rise followed an initial downside gap, with ETH now trading near session highs amid a mixed intraday tone and 5.07% volatility.

Earlier, analysts noted that Ethereum remained under pressure from persistent ETF outflows and a lack of decisive recovery despite ongoing market volatility. The current rebound adds a new dimension to the outlook, but traders should monitor $2,379 as a key support level—failure to hold above this could bring renewed downside risk in the days ahead.

Source of Data: ETH Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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