Monero drops more than 8% after technical weakness and regulatory concerns weigh on sentiment

Traders Union
All News
Crypto
Monero drops 8.23% today on selling

Highlights

Monero outperformed Bitcoin over the past year, with market capitalization at $11 billion and strong trading activity in recent sessions.
Monero faces restricted buying channels in Europe, with an EU AMLR deadline in July 2027 but retains private self-custody rights.
XMR trades below key moving averages with sustained selling pressure and an expected five-day range of $450.38 to $580.3; oversold oscillators warn of possible rebound.

Regulatory constraints and technical update impact XMR flows and sentiment

Monero recorded significant relative gains against Bitcoin over the past year, with market capitalization reaching approximately $11 billion and consistent above-average trading volume reported in recent sessions. Regulatory limitations remain in Europe, with narrow channels for purchasing XMR and an upcoming EU AMLR deadline set for July 2027, though private self-custody is still allowed. The project also released a technical update, version 0.18.5.4, aiming to address various network issues, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, believes Monero's latest 8.23% drop confirms persistent technical weakness. He points out sustained pressure below short- and medium-term averages, and sees limited buyer participation as a warning sign. Network updates have not shifted the bearish tone. Longstanding regulatory uncertainty and shrinking access in Europe further undermine wider adoption potential. "For now, the technical and regulatory headwinds suggest caution — rebounds are possible, but downside risks remain in firm control," says Kharitonov.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, highlights Monero's robust market capitalization and its outperformance against Bitcoin as evidence of enduring demand. He stresses that the bullish long-term structure remains intact, with the price still holding above the 200-day moving average. Regulatory shifts in the EU are noted, but Karapetjanc sees opportunities in Monero’s continued support for private custody and ongoing technical development. "Monero's resilience and active development signal further growth prospects — the market offers multiple setups for forward-thinking investors," says Karapetjanc.

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, sees Monero trading in a heavy intraday mood, although indicators now point to oversold territory. He notes downside momentum is strong but highlights the risk of a sharp rebound as oscillators flash early signals of seller exhaustion. Technical boundaries between $535 and $536.27 signal congestion and may offer quick-fire trades for opportunistic players. "Short-term action will be all about volatility and tight range setups — watch for a potential snap move if sellers tire further," says Turakhiya.

Near-term bearish momentum persists as technical boundaries limit price action

XMR/USD is trading below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages at $600.76 and $574.8, highlighting persistent near-term and intermediate-term weakness. The pair remains above the 200-day level at $437.51, which confirms a still-bullish longer-term structure. Immediate pressure is visible, with a narrow range between the near-term floor at $535 and ceiling at $536.27 containing the recent price action. The Ichimoku Kijun at $597.86 marks broader resistance above the current levels. Momentum signals show clear selling pressure, with the MACD neutral, ADX indicating a sell bias, and RSI in a neutral zone. Meanwhile, both the Stochastic RSI and CCI have reached oversold zones, suggesting selling exhaustion or the risk of a potential rebound. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) is negative, confirming sellers dominate intraday momentum. Price action currently sits near the session low, and volatility has reached 7.97%. The overall tone is heavy, with persistent seller control intraday, but oversold oscillators warn that rebound risk cannot be ruled out.

Earlier, analysts noted that Monero was facing persistent downside risk amid continued selling pressure and negative technical signals. The current setup introduces an increased probability of bullish consolidation, with traders advised to monitor the $536.27 resistance for signs of further upside movement within the updated volatility band.

Source of Data: XMR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.