Bitcoin bearish MACD signal points to deeper downside risk
Bitcoin is facing renewed technical pressure as a closely watched momentum indicator slips into negative territory, raising the risk of a sharper pullback. If the weekly MACD histogram stays below zero at Sunday’s close, historical patterns suggest the cryptocurrency could revisit levels below $60,000 for the first time since July.
Highlights
- Bitcoin's weekly MACD histogram moved below zero, signaling bearish momentum and raising the potential for a decline below $60,000 if sustained.
- Historical CoinDesk data shows that after 24 prior bearish MACD signals since 2012, Bitcoin fell at least 16% in 13 cases, often within a median of three weeks.
- Institutional outflows from spot ETFs and a stronger U.S. dollar are contributing to downside pressure on bitcoin and other crypto prices.
Technical signal raises downside scenario
As reported by CoinDesk, the weekly moving average convergence divergence, or MACD, histogram for bitcoin has moved below zero, a shift that signals weakening momentum if it holds through the weekly close on Sunday.Analysts and crypto market commentators are flagging the move as a bearish development. Josh Taylor, founder and lead contributor of analytics firm 7th Key Financial, says on X that bitcoin is headed lower, adding that weekly technical indicators are showing a bearish rollover.
The key market question is how far any decline could extend. A fall to bitcoin’s 2026 low near $57,700 would imply another drop of about 16% from current levels, taking the token back under $60,000, a threshold not seen since July.
Historical pattern and broader market pressure
CoinDesk’s analysis of data since November 2012 shows the indicator has turned bearish 24 times. In 13 of those episodes, bitcoin fell at least 16% from the level at which the signal was confirmed before the MACD turned bullish again.The declines have often unfolded quickly. Five of the 13 drops reached that threshold within one week, 10 did so within four weeks, and the median time was three weeks. Among the sharpest moves, bitcoin fell 38% in one week in November 2018 and 35% in one week in February 2014, while the August 2025 signal took 12 weeks to reach a 16% decline.
Not every bearish signal leads to a steep selloff. On 11 occasions, bitcoin fell less than 16%, including in June, when it slipped just 3% to $57,700 before rebounding. The latest technical warning is also emerging as institutions pull money from spot ETFs and a stronger U.S. dollar adds pressure to risk assets, factors that could weigh further on crypto prices.
As noted in our earlier article, the Nasdaq 100 selloff accelerated as the index broke key moving averages amid falling Treasury yields.
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