Bitcoin falls over 6% as U.S. spot ETF outflows and bearish technicals pressure market

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Bitcoin slides 6.02% today on weak flows

Highlights

Bitcoin spot ETFs in the US saw over $1 billion in outflows for a second week, reducing liquidity and pressuring prices.
The US Treasury advanced a new custody system for 198,000 to 328,000 Bitcoin previously seized by the government.
BTC trades below key averages, with strong downside momentum and an expected five-day range of $60,015 to $68,647.

ETF-driven liquidity drop and risk-off sentiment deepen bearish pressure

Bitcoin experienced renewed negative sentiment as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $1 billion in outflows for the second consecutive week, reducing liquidity and negatively impacting price dynamics. This decline was accompanied by risk-off positioning linked to rising U.S. Treasury yields and ongoing concerns over inflation. The U.S. Treasury moved forward with a new custody framework for government-held Bitcoin, seeking to enhance security for 198,000 to 328,000 BTC previously seized. Market sentiment has shifted to 'extreme fear' with continued weak fundamental demand through spot channels.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, observes that Bitcoin remains under severe selling pressure after another week of heavy ETF outflows and heightened liquidation risk. He notes persistent technical weakness, as price trades below all key moving averages, and highlights that market sentiment has dropped into extreme fear. Kharitonov points to weak fundamental demand and continued institutional selling, which exacerbates downside risk. He warns that bearish momentum prevails, with most oscillators flashing caution and no sign of a reversal. "The setup strongly favors the bears — I see little reason to anticipate a sustainable rebound while outflows and fear dominate," he concludes.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, acknowledges recent headwinds but believes the macro and regulatory backdrop may support future growth. He highlights that the U.S. Treasury's new custody framework reflects increasing government engagement with Bitcoin, which could set the stage for broader institutional adoption. Karapetjanc sees outflows and volatility as temporary obstacles, not structural shifts. He emphasizes that, despite short-term fear, the bullish structure remains intact over the medium term. "These periods of dislocation create opportunity — I expect investor confidence and demand to rebound, unlocking fresh upside," he states.

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, notes Bitcoin’s strong bearish technical setup and negative momentum signals. He sees tight consolidation around current levels as likely, with the risk of further downside if $60,015 fails. Mehta points out that extreme bearish sentiment could set up a short-term contrarian play if oversold signals persist. "A tactical bounce could materialize on seller exhaustion, but trend confirmation is needed before a bullish shift," he asserts.

Technical breakdown reinforced by strong negative momentum signals

BTC/USD is trading below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages ($76,747, $80,638, and $73,095, respectively), signaling persistent downside pressure across all timeframes. The nearest support sits at $63,944, with resistance near $67,568, while higher moving averages and the Ichimoku Kijun ($76,233) confirm a prevailing bearish trend. Momentum signals are strongly negative: the MACD and Average Directional Index (ADX) both support strong selling bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), Stochastic RSI, and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) are all in their oversold zones, indicating potential selling exhaustion instead of a trend reversal. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) remains deeply negative, showing sellers dominate intraday momentum, which is further confirmed by the Awesome Oscillator. BTC/USD has dropped $4,118.68, down 6.02% from the previous close after opening with a downside gap of about 0.2%. The price is near the intraday low, and volatility amplitude is 7.04%, reflecting persistent pressure throughout the session.

Earlier, analysts noted that ongoing U.S. inflation concerns and expectations of Federal Reserve tightening were contributing to Bitcoin's downside pressure, driven by persistent ETF outflows and risk-off sentiment. The current breakdown below all major moving averages alongside extreme market fear underscores that sellers remain dominant, with the $60,015 level now serving as a critical threshold for further downside risk.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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