Raydium drops nearly 10% after weak technical indicators and broader market decline

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Raydium slides 9.85% today to $1.34

Highlights

Raydium recorded a sharp rise in Q3 2026 operations, with pool fees tripling and trading volume doubling compared to the prior period.
The protocol conducted $5.23 million in RAY token repurchases, bringing its buyback wallet to 32.6% of circulating supply as of October 28.
RAY/USD remains under sustained seller pressure below key moving averages, with a projected 5-day range of $1.1473 to $1.5169 and a 77% probability of further downside.

Operational growth and buybacks fail to offset market-driven pressure

Raydium reported significant operational growth in Q3 2026, with pool fees tripling as trading volume doubled and a larger share of swap fees supporting increased RAY token buybacks. The protocol repurchased $5.23 million in RAY during the quarter, with its buyback wallet now holding 32.6% of circulating supply as of October 28. These updates occurred without any confirmed protocol incidents, security issues, or regulatory actions directly linked to the token, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Raydium facing persistent technical and sentiment headwinds. The strong protocol buyback and increased Q3 activity have not offset heavy market-wide selling. Multiple momentum indicators stay negative, and price action remains pinned below key averages. Kharitonov remains skeptical due to weak macro support and a lack of clear bullish confirmation. "Until trend signals turn more positive, I would avoid chasing rebound hopes here."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, highlights Raydium's strong operational growth and substantial Q3 buybacks as signals of underlying strength. He sees the protocol’s increasing share of swap fees and growing buyback wallet as positive drivers that can support future upward moves once broader market pressure fades. Karapetjanc notes that these fundamentals build a foundation for recovery despite current price weakness. "Buyback momentum and efficient protocol design make RAY a key candidate for an upside surprise when sentiment shifts."

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, observes that RAY remains above its 200-day moving average despite sharp near-term losses. He recognizes lingering bearish momentum but sees oversold conditions as a setup for short-term tactical trades if price holds above the $1.1473 floor. "If sellers exhaust and spot demand appears near support, a quick mean-reversion trade could follow — but clear confirmation is still needed."

Sustained downside momentum as technical support holds above longer-term floor

RAY/USD trades below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages at $1.6838 and $1.8935, indicating ongoing short- and medium-term pressure from sellers. However, it remains above the 200-day moving average at $1.0739, which suggests longer-term support is still intact. The price is pinned near the session’s low, with the near-term ceiling at $1.3589 and the near-term floor at $1.1473. The Ichimoku Kijun at $1.7844 and other distant resistance levels remain far overhead, further confirming the prevailing bearish structure. Momentum indicators reinforce the negative tone, with the MACD signaling sell and the Average Directional Index (ADX) at 17.5471 indicating a weak trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic RSI are neutral, while the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is in the oversold zone, suggesting potential selling exhaustion but no confirmed rebound. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) at -0.0505 points to sellers dominating intraday momentum, and the Awesome Oscillator continues to read bearish. Intraday volatility stands at 9.83%, and price action reflects heavy selling pressure with little sign of recovery so far.

Earlier, analysts noted that Raydium was under sustained bearish momentum with limited prospects for a near-term reversal. The latest data confirming persistent technical weakness, despite operational improvements, reinforces the prevailing downside risk, with traders advised to monitor the $1.1473 support for signs of accelerated selling.

Source of Data: RAY Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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