U.S. election prediction markets track polls closely, with misses in key races

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Election markets and polls

Highlights

Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket mirror polling and outcomes for most 2026 U.S. midterm races but miss in key districts like Wisconsin's First and Iowa Senate.
In Mississippi and South Carolina Senate races, limited prediction market coverage coincides with surprise Democratic wins by Scott Colom and Annie Andrews, despite polling showing Republican edges.
Coverage gaps in both polling and prediction markets reduce pre-election confidence, especially in under-tracked Senate races such as South Carolina and Mississippi.

How markets and polls compare in the 2026 cycle

As reported by CoinDesk, prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket broadly align with polling across most of the main races tracked during the 2026 U.S. midterm election cycle, and both also largely match the eventual outcomes. The comparison in the newsletter focuses less on whether markets replace polls and more on whether they offer a separate measure of conviction around a result.

That overlap still leaves notable misses. In Wisconsin's First House District, Representative Bryan Steil loses to Democrat Mitchell Berman after both polls and prediction markets show a dead heat on the Friday before the vote. In Alabama's Second House District, Representative Shomari Figures defeats challenger Rhett Marques even though both polls and prediction markets show Marques leading in the redrawn district.

In the Iowa Senate race, State Representative Josh Turek defeats Representative Ashley Hinson and flips the seat. Prediction markets give Hinson an edge, while polling averages indicate an even race.

Coverage gaps limit confidence signals

Outside those contests, polls and prediction markets generally point to the eventual winner in the races under review. But some Senate races receive little support from either system, making them harder to assess before results come in.

In Mississippi, a Polymarket contract favors incumbent Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith until vote returns begin arriving on election night, while Kalshi does not list a contract for the race. In South Carolina, neither Polymarket nor Kalshi offers a direct outcome contract, although Polymarket lists a parlay tied to Montana, South Carolina and Mississippi Senate winners.

Both races end as upsets, with Democrats Scott Colom in Mississippi and Annie Andrews in South Carolina winning their seats. Polling offers limited help there as well, with The New York Times poll archive showing Senator Graham ahead by one point in South Carolina and no Mississippi polls on its page, while other sites cite narrow Hyde-Smith leads.

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