Toncoin: Weak technical signals led to sideways action in price prediction

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Toncoin Slips 0.83% Today to $3.13

Highlights

Toncoin (TON) trades at $3.13, below its MA-20 ($3.329), MA-50 ($3.293), and MA-200 ($3.224), indicating strong downside momentum across timeframes.
Post-Robinhood listing on August 28, TON saw a surge in volume and a $713 million acquisition by Verb Technology Company, boosting institutional and on-chain demand.
With RSI at 36.8 and multiple oversold indicators, bearish momentum persists and the probability of a price increase next week remains below 20%.

Trading volume and institutional demand rise after major listing

Robinhood’s decision to list TON on August 28 led to a notable surge in trading volume and signaled increased investor access to the token. Institutional activity has also been robust, with Verb Technology Company acquiring over $713 million worth of tokens, deepening demand. The network’s recent growth includes a strong rise in on-chain activity and staking participation, further supporting confidence in the asset.

Bearish momentum confirmed as resistance holds and indicators oversold

The Ichimoku Kijun level at $3.382 stands as the nearest dynamic resistance, while support is limited below the current price, highlighting persistent bearish sentiment and little sign of a reversal at this stage. Momentum signals remain negative, as the D1 MACD shows a sell forecast and ADX is weak, confirming a lack of strong trend direction but with a bias to the downside. Multiple oscillators indicate oversold conditions — RSI at 36.8, Stoch RSI at 18.9, and CCI at -103.5 — all suggesting the market is stretched on the downside, though buying interest has yet to appear decisively. The Awesome Oscillator also supports the prevailing downtrend with a strong sell read, reinforcing bearish momentum.

Further decline likely as narrow consolidation signals weak upside odds

Looking ahead, the expected price range for the next five trading days is $3.290 to $3.306, with an average price near $3.298. Based on higher-timeframe signals (none of RSI W1, ADX W1, MACD W1, or MA-50 W1 indicate a buy), the probability of a price increase over the coming week is very low (less than 20%), making a further decline the more likely scenario. In the baseline scenario, price consolidates sideways within a narrow range near current levels. A bullish outcome would require a break above the $3.224 — $3.293 area (MA-200 and MA-50), potentially challenging the Ichimoku Kijun at $3.382. Conversely, a bearish scenario involves failure to hold above $3.13, opening up further downside risk if the price slips beneath the day’s low and cannot establish support.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, believes that Toncoin's current technical setup signals persistent bearish momentum and a lack of decisive buyer interest, despite positive developments around network activity and exchange listings. The base case remains price consolidation near current levels, with resistance overhead and downside risks still present. 'Unless we see a clear reclaim of the $3.224 — $3.293 area and a break above the Ichimoku Kijun at $3.382, I remain defensive — for now, capital preservation outweighs any speculative upside.'

Previously, it was noted that market sentiment was cautious as traders weighed the battle between supply and demand. The article highlighted that liquidity flows hint at stabilizing sentiment with technical levels remaining decisive for near-term direction.

Source of Data: TON Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.