Nasdaq Composite targets 23,000 record peak as ADP miss fuels rate cut bet
The Nasdaq Composite Index extended its winning streak to four straight days on Wednesday, October 1, closing higher even as the U.S. government entered a shutdown.
The index advanced 0.45% to reach 22,760, supported by the largest daily trading volume in over eight days. The gains placed the benchmark within 0.2% of its record high at 22,800, set in September.
Highlights
- Nasdaq four-day rally continues as ADP miss fuels stronger rate cut bets
- Nasdaq futures point higher, suggesting new record above 22,800 in Thursday’s session
- Nasdaq targets 23,000 as shutdown delays labor data and supports bullish sentiment
The rally took place against a backdrop of political gridlock and weaker economic data. The government shutdown, triggered after the Senate failed to pass a spending bill, heightened uncertainty around the release of official economic indicators. At the same time, the ADP private payrolls report showed a contraction instead of growth, reinforcing the view that the labor market is losing momentum. That surprise shifted market expectations toward a more accommodative Federal Reserve stance, with traders increasing bets on a 25 basis-point rate cut at the next meeting.
Nasdaq price dynamic (July - Sept 2025). Source: Tradingview
As of Thursday, October 2, futures tied to the Nasdaq were already pointing higher, advancing 0.37% in the early premarket session. This suggests that the index is poised to open at record territory above 22,800 once the cash session begins. Such a move would mark the fifth consecutive daily gain for the benchmark, cementing its strongest run since early September.
Nasdaq’s upside outlook anchored by 23,000 pivot if momentum extends Thursday
The lack of official labor data due to the shutdown has further magnified the market’s focus on the ADP report. Since it may be the only near-term indicator available, the interpretation of the disappointing reading added fuel to the equity rally, lifting valuations even closer to psychological milestones.
Historical precedent tells that Wall Street indexes have typically advanced during past government shutdowns, though extended shutdowns of ten days or more have produced more mixed outcomes. For now, the shorter-horizon perspective appears to be driving optimism, especially as rate cut hopes dominate sentiment.
Technically, the Nasdaq Composite now has 23,000 in sight as a near-term pivot level should upward momentum carry through Thursday’s session. Sustaining a decisive move above 22,800 would not only mark a new record but also strengthen confidence in the continuation of the broader uptrend.
We talked about the Nasdaq Composite Index positive start to the week amid U.S. government shutdown. Nasdaq's six-month winning streak stayed intact as monthly gain surpasses 5%.
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