Nasdaq Composite holds 22,600 support as traders eye government shutdown risk

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Sholanke Dele

30.09.2025

Nasdaq Composite holds 22,600 support as traders eye government shutdown risk — Nasdaq traders await labour data

The Nasdaq Composite Index began the week on a positive tone, climbing 0.97% on Monday to touch a four-day high at 22,700 from the prior week’s close at 22,485.

That early push marked a strong start, although momentum cooled before the closing bell. The index settled at 22,600, still a 0.55% gain for the day but off intraday highs, a sign that buyers eased off after the initial surge.

- Nasdaq gains 0.97% Monday, closing at 22,600 after intraday 22,700 high.

- Nasdaq's six-month winning streak stays intact as monthly gain surpasses 5%.

- Nasdaq 22,500 support aligns with Fibonacci retracement and 20 EMA confluence.

Tuesday’s premarket session showed a mild retracement, with futures down 0.16%. The softening comes as investors weigh the final trading day of September, a month that is on track to deliver the sixth straight monthly advance for the Nasdaq. Month-to-date gains stand above 5%, highlighting the resilience of technology-heavy equities in a backdrop shaped by monetary policy expectations.

Nasdaq price dynamic (July - Sept 2025). Source: Tradingview

Investor focus has now shifted toward the release of the JOLTS Job Openings report and the looming risk of a government shutdown. The labour data takes on greater significance given the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance on rate cuts. A shutdown could delay key economic releases at a sensitive time for policymakers and markets, raising the risk of uncertainty around growth and inflation. Previous shutdowns have caused limited disruption, yet the current setting is more delicate.

Nasdaq rally hinges on breakthrough of the 22,800 all-time high

In addition to labour data, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index is expected, and a heavy lineup of Federal Reserve speakers, including Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and regional presidents Susan Collins, Austan Goolsbee, and Lorie Logan, could offer fresh policy signals. Market participants will be parsing these remarks for clarity on whether the Fed sees scope for further easing into year-end.

Technically, the Nasdaq’s hourly chart highlights 22,500 as the nearest support level. That area corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent advance and is reinforced by the 20 EMA. Holding that floor keeps the near-term bullish case intact. On the upside, the all-time high at 22,800 is within reach, sitting just 0.85% above Monday’s close. A decisive breakthrough that barrier would validate the six-month rally and confirm that dip buyers are still willing to defend the trend.

Nasdaq futures point higher on Monday as Fed rate cut bets strengthen October outlook. Government shutdown risk threatens market stability and the Fed's assessment of labour conditions.

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