Optimism price prediction: further downside ahead? OP struggles below key support

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Optimism slides 10.66% today on selloff

Highlights

Optimism (OP) fell 10.66% to $0.6236, trading below MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200, confirming strong, short- and medium-term downward pressure.
On October 6, 2025, 4.47 million OP tokens ($3.28 million) are scheduled for release to team and investors, temporarily boosting short-term supply amid recent record Layer 2 trading volume.
Technical sentiment remains bearish with strong sell signals from MACD, ADX, and Awesome Oscillator, while the expected weekly range is $0.7294–$0.7702 and further downside likely unless $0.7449 resistance breaks.

Token unlock and trading surge drive bearish Optimism sentiment

Optimism’s recent price dynamics are influenced by the release of 4.47 million OP tokens worth approximately $3.28 million to the project team and investors as of October 6, 2025, which may impact short-term supply. Meanwhile, the asset posted a notable surge in Layer 2 trading activity and ranked first in daily trading volume among its peers, reflecting increased investor interest and ecosystem engagement. Technical sentiment remains bearish amid market volatility and a forecasted price drop before mid-October.

Negative momentum with mixed signals near oversold technical levels

Momentum readings are negative, with the MACD signaling a strong sell and the ADX confirming a trend is present, though direction is mixed across timeframes. The daily RSI is neutral to slightly bullish, while the Stoch RSI and CCI are mostly neutral with oversold conditions — suggesting a possible technical rebound. The BBP highlights seller dominance, and the Awesome Oscillator supports the current strong downside momentum. Price action is concentrated near today’s low end of $0.6593 – $0.7343, with persistent selling pressure and high volatility since the open, indicating intraday downside remains the dominant force.

Further downside likely as consolidation persists below resistance

For the coming week, the expected range is $0.7294 to $0.7702. The likelihood of an upward move is very low, with the probability calculated below 20%, suggesting further downside is more probable in the short term. The base case anticipates OP consolidating sideways within the given band, while a bullish reversal would require a clear breakout above resistance at $0.7449. Conversely, a break below $0.6593 support would confirm continued weakness and extend the prevailing downward trend.

Anton Kharitonov, Traders Union expert, sees a sustained bearish structure for Optimism (OP) as technical momentum signals remain weak and the price stays below key moving averages. He notes that despite increased Layer 2 trading activity and investor interest, the scheduled token unlock and prevailing volatility keep downside risks elevated over the short term. Kharitonov emphasizes that unless $0.7449 resistance is reclaimed, any positive reversal appears unlikely, and support at $0.6593 remains the last line before further losses. "Base case remains caution — as long as OP trades below resistance, I can’t trust any upside scenario."

Previously it was noted that downside risk dominates outlook as rebound chances for Optimism remain minimal. The last report highlighted that technical signals were mixed, with bearish momentum prevailing and only weak support in the near term.

Source of Data: OP Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.