Ethereum price prediction: ETH rebounds toward $4,100 as derivatives flows improve

Traders Union
All News
Crypto News
Ethereum steadies near $4,100

Highlights

- Ethereum trades around $4,100 after recovering from last week’s $3,750 low.

- Key resistance sits between $4,250 and $4,265, with $3,975 acting as near-term support.

- Derivatives positioning turns constructive as open interest climbs 8.6% to $48.6 billion.

On the daily chart, ETH remains within a wide rectangle pattern between $3,975 and $4,950 that has dictated its trading range since July. The recent correction to $3,750 tested the 200-day exponential moving average at $3,535, where buyers stepped in aggressively to defend the long-term trend. The rebound has lifted ETH above the 100-day EMA at $3,975, bringing price action closer to the 20- and 50-day cluster near $4,250–$4,265.

ETH price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

A close above this resistance band would likely reinforce bullish momentum and open a path toward $4,600 and $4,950. Failure to clear it could trigger renewed pressure and a return toward the $3,975 pivot. The RSI, which recently recovered from oversold territory to around 47, indicates room for further upside if buyers can maintain momentum.

The Parabolic SAR, however, remains above current levels, suggesting that the market has yet to confirm a clean bullish reversal. Traders are likely to focus on whether ETH can maintain support above $4,000, which has served as a critical psychological and technical line in recent sessions.

Flows and derivatives data show mixed sentiment

On-chain activity reflects lingering caution, with $45.9 million in net outflows recorded over the last 24 hours, indicating that large holders and funds are still trimming exposure. Yet, derivatives markets paint a more optimistic picture. ETH futures open interest has increased 8.6% to $48.6 billion, while trading volumes surged 66% to $131.5 billion. Options open interest has also expanded beyond $15 billion, proposing that institutional traders are positioning for potential upside or hedging against volatility.

Leverage remains tilted slightly bullish, with Binance’s top traders holding a long-to-short ratio above 2.2 to 1. Liquidation data shows $160 million in short positions were wiped out in the last 24 hours, compared with $62 million in longs, as the rebound forced bearish traders to cover losses. This short squeeze has contributed to the recent bounce but also signals that the market remains sensitive to positioning imbalances.

If Ethereum can sustain its current base near $4,000, the combination of renewed derivatives activity and reduced short exposure could provide the fuel for another upward push. However, the path higher remains dependent on whether the asset can close decisively above $4,265 and maintain support in the $3,975 region.

Outlook

In the near term, the battle between $3,975 support and $4,265 resistance will define Ethereum’s trajectory. A confirmed breakout would reestablish the bullish channel toward $4,600 and $4,950, while another rejection may bring back volatility and test lower supports near $3,750.

Previously, we discussed that Ethereum’s price structure remained constructive as long as it held above the 200-day EMA, which serves as the broader market’s long-term pivot. That observation remains valid today. While short-term uncertainty persists, growing institutional activity and a strong base near $4,000 suggest that Ethereum still holds a cautiously bullish bias heading into the coming sessions.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.