Solana slips to $140 as broken trend structure and outflows keep pressure on recovery

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Solana tests $140 support

Highlights

- Solana trades near $140 as the bounce stalls below the 20 EMA at $144 and 50 EMA at $163.

- Spot outflows remain negative, with the latest –$18.28M print signaling ongoing distribution.

- Open interest stabilizes at $7.27B, while retail-heavy long ratios hint at cautious early accumulation.

The most important development on the daily chart is Solana’s clean breakdown below its year-long ascending trendline, a structure that guided the April-to-September advance. The failed retest in early November — rejected sharply at the intersection of the broken trendline and the falling 50 EMA near $175 — marked the start of the deeper slide to $126. That rejection confirmed a shift from a trending market to a corrective one, with the former trendline now sitting far overhead and reinforcing the presence of structural resistance.

SOL price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

Short-term momentum has improved since Solana carved a higher low above the $126 flush point, but buyers remain capped beneath the 20 EMA at $144 and 50 EMA at $163. Until those levels are reclaimed on a daily close, the current rebound remains a relief phase rather than a reversal. The Supertrend remains firmly bearish at $162, signaling that overhead supply is active and likely to respond to each test of the $145–$150 region.

If price fails to break above this band, a rotation back toward support at $118–$125 becomes likely. This zone acted as a reaction area through the summer consolidation and represents the next demand layer beneath the November low.

Spot outflows stay heavy as derivatives signal cautious re-engagement

Flow data continues to lean negative. Coinglass tracking shows sustained red prints since late September, with multiple November outflow days between –$20M and –$80M. The latest reading of –$18.28M confirms that while the pace has slowed, sellers have not stepped aside. Earlier episodes — including the $150M February outflow and October’s series of large red bars — underline how aggressively liquidity has exited the asset during stress periods. Without a shift in spot flows, rallies face the constant risk of renewed distribution.

Derivative metrics offer a more nuanced picture. Open interest has stabilized at $7.27B after last week’s broad liquidation wave, signaling that traders are slowly re-entering the market. The 24-hour long/short ratio at 0.8968 shows balanced exposure, though Binance’s retail-skewed readings above 3.4 suggest aggressive dip-buying among smaller traders. Options open interest has eased, and volume has fallen more than 40 percent, indicating reduced speculative demand and cooling volatility expectations after the sharp decline.

Liquidation patterns also show improvement. Early-November sessions were dominated by long liquidations, but recent candles reveal a healthier distribution, with clusters of short liquidations appearing on intraday spikes. This shift hints at improving microstructure even if the macro trend remains constrained beneath major EMAs.

Path forward: $150 remains the battleground

For Solana to transition into a sustainable recovery, buyers must reclaim the 20 EMA at $144 and then break decisively above $163, where the 50 EMA aligns with the Supertrend flip. A close above that zone would open the door toward $175–$180, where the 100 EMA and underside of the broken trendline converge — a major structural test.

On the downside, failure to clear $145–$150 increases the probability of a return to the $126 low. A breakdown there exposes the $118 support band, a level that has historically attracted institutional buying during deeper pullbacks.Solana is now in a phase defined not by explosive swings but by structural rebuilding after a major breakdown. The asset will need improving flows, reclaimed EMAs, and stronger derivatives conviction before confidence returns. For now, the bounce is constructive but fragile, and the $150 ceiling remains the level that will determine whether this recovery strengthens or resets lower.

In earlier analysis, Solana’s trendline break and heavy spot outflows were highlighted as the key drivers behind the transition from a strong uptrend into a corrective phase. The current struggle beneath the $145–$150 resistance zone aligns with that view, reinforcing that Solana must reclaim its short-term EMAs before any broader trend reversal can form.

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