US Dollar vs Israeli Shekel holds gains as pair rebounds but remains below key moving averages

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Us dollar/shekel rises 0.55% today

Highlights

USD/ILS remains below key short-, medium-, and long-term moving averages, indicating persistent selling pressure across timeframes.
Momentum indicators such as MACD and ADX show weak bullish momentum, while neither RSI nor CCI indicates oversold conditions, supporting further downside risk.
The pair is expected to trade in a ₪2.9659 to ₪3.0199 range over the next five sessions, with over 80% probability of a downward move.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, highlights persistent technical weakness in USD/ILS. He notes the inability to break above any moving average and sees bearish momentum confirmed by momentum indicators. Kharitonov is critical of the absence of supportive news, which reflects broader market indifference and lack of positive drivers. He stresses that upside gaps appear unsustainable in this technical and sentiment environment. "Any rebound here is fragile, and traders should remain defensive until a decisive shift occurs," he warns.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees opportunity for active traders as USD/ILS shows signs of near-term buying despite minimal news flow. He interprets intraday upticks and holding above support as a resilient market structure. Karapetjanc points to the maintained volatility and the possibility of a move towards the top of the expected range. He remains constructive about tactical bullish setups. "With volatility healthy and buyers still present, I expect agile strategies to benefit from potential upside toward ₪3.0199," he affirms.

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, believes the technical and macro setup for USD/ILS suggests a range-bound trade. He notes that lackluster momentum and quiet macro drivers limit directional conviction. Mehta sees tactical trades around the support and resistance levels as more appealing than trend-following strategies. "If support at ₪2.9867 fails, a quick downside scalp may make sense; if not, fading strength near resistance could offer value," Mehta suggests.

Sustained bearish structure as weak momentum meets technical barriers

USD/ILS remains below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages—now standing at ₪3.0089, ₪3.0149, and ₪3.0333, respectively. This structure reflects continued selling pressure across short-, medium-, and long-term timeframes, as well as a bearish alignment between the 50-day and 200-day averages. The pair is now positioned just under near-term resistance at ₪2.9974 and holds above immediate support at ₪2.9867. Momentum readings point to weak performance: MACD and ADX indicate a lack of bullish momentum, and neither the Relative Strength Index (RSI at 42.0712) nor the Commodity Channel Index (CCI at -69.4216) signal oversold conditions. The Stochastic RSI remains neutral at 68.4794. Bull/Bear Power suggests buyers narrowly dominate intraday, but conviction is weak. USD/ILS moved up to ₪2.9929 after an upside gap of ₪0.0017, with volatility at 0.45%. The short-term tone is mixed, as intraday strength contrasts with underlying weak momentum signals.

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/ILS was dominated by a broadly bearish technical trend as sellers maintained control. The latest data reinforces this outlook, suggesting that traders should monitor for renewed downside risk if immediate support fails to hold in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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