US Treasury expands long-term bond buybacks: Can USD/THB hold above ฿32.6757 support?

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US Dollar vs Thai Baht drops 0.59% today

Highlights

The US Treasury expanded buybacks of long-term government bonds, increasing Treasury demand and pushing long-term yields lower.
Lower long-term yields have reduced the US Dollar's carry appeal and international demand, applying downward pressure on the currency.
USD/THB trades below key short- and medium-term averages, with multiple oversold signals indicating dominant selling interest and likely further downside within a ฿32.5123 to ฿32.8391 range over the next 2 to 3 days.

Expanded Treasury buybacks apply sustained downward pressure on dollar

The U.S. Treasury Department expanded its buybacks of long-term government bonds, a move that increases Treasury demand and helps to reduce long-term yields, according to Economictimes Indiatimes. Lower yields diminish the carry appeal of the US Dollar and reduce international demand, which has pressured currency levels. Additional downward force on the dollar stems from the Treasury's decision to double purchases of long-end bonds, as reported by Fxstreet, and the possibility of exceeding the previously announced $4 billion for improved liquidity, according to Cnbc.

Short-term bearish momentum persists as technicals signal further weakness

The USD/THB is now positioned below both the MA-20 and MA-50, affirming near- and medium-term downside momentum, while remaining above the MA-200, which marks underlying long-term support. The Ichimoku Kijun at ฿32.8167 serves as immediate resistance in the current market structure. Technical signals show continued weakness: MACD and ADX both display Sell signals, RSI is near 30, and Stoch RSI and CCI register in oversold territory. Bull/Bear Power readings confirm sellers' dominance on the intraday timeframe, and the Awesome Oscillator underscores persistent downside strength.

Consolidation likely amid low odds of reversal or rebound

Over the next 2–3 trading days, the expected range for USD/THB is ฿32.5123 to ฿32.8391, marking a typical volatility band relative to current levels. There is a very low probability of a near-term up move and a very high probability that further declines may occur, while the odds of a reversal are small. Baseline expectation is for the pair to consolidate within this corridor. Should price break above immediate resistance, higher levels become possible, while a drop through support may open the way for additional downside.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union analyst, sees the expanded US Treasury buyback program as a major macro factor weighing on USD/THB. The news has triggered lower yields and pressured the dollar, while technical signals confirm strong near-term downside. He believes the pair is likely to consolidate with a bearish tilt unless resistance at ฿32.8167 is reclaimed. 'Given robust selling and liquidity support for Treasuries, I expect sellers to stay in control until the technicals or policy shift,' says Karapetjanc.

Previously it was reported that downside momentum remained dominant for USD/THB, with the currency pair exhibiting sustained bearish pressure. The latest analysis reinforces this outlook amid ongoing technical weakness and additional macroeconomic headwinds, making further declines below key support a central risk to monitor in the near term.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.