USD/HUF holds near Ft308.94 support as lower Hungary government bond yields support forint

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US Dollar vs Hungarian Forint drops 0.57%

Highlights

Hungary's fiscal outlook has improved with the combination of a stronger forint, lower bond yields, and the recovery of EU funding.
July recorded a budget surplus of 524 billion forints (EUR 1.44 billion) and a reduced deficit, which has supported the forint against major currencies.
USD/HUF remains under persistent bearish pressure, trading below key averages, with a projected range of Ft308.9498 to Ft312.0548 and a 78% probability of further declines.

Government fiscal gains and EU funding boost underpin forint stability

Hungary's government has reported that a combination of a stronger forint, lower government bond yields, and the recovery of EU funding has improved the country's fiscal outlook, according to Dailynewshungary. These factors have contributed to enhanced market confidence in Hungary’s financial stability, supporting the forint's position against major currencies. Finance Minister András Kármán’s announcement of a July budget surplus of 524 billion forints (EUR 1.44 billion), coupled with a notable reduction in the deficit, further signals a disciplined approach to fiscal policy and has reinforced support for the local currency, as also reported by Dailynewshungary. Despite these positive fiscal developments, price action for USD/HUF has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bearish momentum prevails as technical barriers reinforce downside

On the hourly chart, USD/HUF trades below the MA-20 at Ft311.86 and MA-50 at Ft312.08, with the long-term MA-200 positioned higher at Ft318.23. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at Ft311.68, acting as immediate resistance. Momentum indicators present a bearish technical structure: MACD and ADX both confirm a strong sell environment, RSI reads 33.14, and Stochastic RSI together with CCI indicate oversold conditions. Bull/Bear Power and the Awesome Oscillator are also in alignment with continued downside pressure.

Directional bias favors further declines as price holds within band

Looking ahead over the coming two to three sessions, USD/HUF is expected to oscillate within a volatility band between Ft308.94 and Ft312.05. With the probability of an upward move estimated at 22% and a 78% chance of continued declines, the baseline scenario anticipates consolidation inside this corridor. A confirmed break above Ft311.68 could trigger short-term recovery toward higher resistance, while movement below Ft308.94 would open the door to fresh lows within the downtrend.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees the improved fiscal news from Hungary as supportive for HUF, but notes that technicals and recent price action remain firmly bearish for USD/HUF. He points to strong market confidence and disciplined budget management, yet stresses that key resistance at Ft311.68 remains unbroken and momentum signals are negative. The analyst maintains a cautious stance while the pair trades below major moving averages and the probability of further downside persists. "Until we see a sustained recovery above Ft311.68, I expect USD/HUF to remain under pressure with downside risks prevailing."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/HUF remained under persistent selling pressure amid mixed technical signals, with a cautious outlook due to unresolved downside risks. The current analysis reinforces this bearish scenario, highlighting that as long as USD/HUF remains below the Ft311.68 resistance, traders should monitor Ft308.94 as the next potential downside trigger.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.