Can USD/HUF avoid deeper losses as seller pressure continues?

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US Dollar vs Forint slips 0.52% today

Highlights

USD/HUF trades below key short- and long-term moving averages, keeping near recent lows with low volatility.
Oscillators including RSI, Stoch RSI, and CCI are oversold, but key momentum signals are diverging and do not confirm a clear trend.
USD/HUF is projected to range between Ft308.1525 and Ft311.3992 over 2 to 3 days, with a 71% probability of a further decline.

Conflicting momentum signals as resistance and selling pressure persist

On the technical front, USD/HUF remains below the MA-20 (Ft311.1992) and MA-50 (Ft310.7263) on the hourly chart, as well as below the MA-200 (Ft317.9138) on the daily timeframe. The Ichimoku Kijun level at Ft310.9076 has established itself as immediate resistance. Looking at momentum indicators, MACD shows a Strong Buy signal, while ADX reads as neutral. RSI at 41.75 points to selling pressure, with both Stochastic RSI and CCI signaling oversold conditions. Bull/Bear Power confirms seller dominance on an intraday basis, and the Awesome Oscillator remains neutral, resulting in a clear divergence among the various momentum signals.

Further downside risk as sideways range dominates outlook

For the next 2 to 3 trading days, USD/HUF is expected to fluctuate between Ft308.1525 and Ft311.3992, marking a typical volatility band relative to current levels. There is a 71% likelihood of a further decline, while chances of an upward reversal stand at 29%. The baseline scenario anticipates sideways movement within this range. A decisive move above resistance could trigger a bullish scenario, while a break below support would reinforce the bearish setup.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees USD/HUF trading stuck below key moving averages, with technicals sending mixed messages. He notes that most momentum indicators lean bearish or neutral, while oversold readings point to the risk of further declines. Kharitonov remains cautious, highlighting the absence of significant news and the dominant seller pressure. "Base case is still sideways to lower as long as Ft310.9076 resistance holds — I stay defensive here."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/HUF maintained a prevailing bearish bias driven by persistent downward momentum. The latest technical signals add nuance with mixed momentum readings, suggesting that traders should closely monitor any decisive move beyond Ft311.3992 or below Ft308.1525 for a clearer directional breakout.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.