Canadian Dollar vs Indian Rupee stays under pressure as policy shifts and rupee sentiment remain key

Traders Union
All News
Currency
Cad/inr slips 0.50% today

Highlights

HSBC India CEO states that rupee weakness may trigger a negative feedback loop if capital inflows decline.
Recent changes to India’s Special Rupee Vostro Accounts framework and trade policies could affect rupee liquidity and cross-border adoption.
CAD/INR trades in a bullish trend near ₹68.8411, with technicals favoring upside in a projected range of ₹68.4091 to ₹69.2731 for the next five days.

Rupee liquidity risks increase as policy shifts weigh on sentiment

Recent commentary highlighted potential pressure on the Indian rupee, with HSBC India CEO Hitendra Dave noting that currency weakness could cause a negative feedback loop if capital inflows weaken. Policy changes such as India's updated Special Rupee Vostro Accounts framework and amended trade policies were also reported with possible impacts on rupee liquidity and its adoption in international trade. No direct news specific to Canadian dollar performance or Canadian policy developments was identified.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees ongoing CAD/INR strength as largely technical with limited conviction. He notes Indian rupee vulnerabilities and policy changes add uncertainty, but the latest bounce lacks organic momentum and is likely propped up by mechanical flows. Risks to the bullish structure emerge if capital inflows weaken or recent regulatory changes impact liquidity further. He is skeptical about a sustainable uptrend and warns that the near-20% probability of downside may be underestimated by market consensus. "I remain cautious as headline bullish signals could quickly reverse if support at ₹68.8183 fails to hold."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, believes the bullish technical structure for CAD/INR remains intact. He points to constructive momentum signals and improved internationalization prospects for the rupee despite current liquidity concerns. The evolving regulatory landscape may offer new openings for trade settlement growth. Karapetjanc views the dominance of institutional buyers as a strong support for further gains. "With most signals aligning, I expect CAD/INR to test the upper band at ₹69.2731 very soon."

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, highlights the strength of current intraday buyer dominance in CAD/INR. He notes that sentiment indicators like MACD and RSI signal potential for short-term upside, yet shifts in Indian regulatory sentiment and trade flows may quickly shape the mood. The sideways range scenario suggests both breakout and breakdown trades could emerge over the week. "Traders should stay flexible — a move above ₹68.8967 could trigger fast momentum, but caution is needed if support at ₹68.8183 cracks."

Bullish momentum persists as CAD/INR approaches resistance levels

CAD/INR is trading above its 20-, 50-, and 200-day moving averages (₹68.6091, ₹68.1174, and ₹67.8333, respectively), indicating a bullish trend structure across the short, medium, and long term. The pair is positioned just below the near-term resistance at ₹68.8967, with immediate support at the recent week’s low of ₹68.8183. The alignment of MA-50 above MA-200 supports the positive trend. Momentum signals remain bullish as both MACD and RSI forecast 'Buy', with a neutral reading from ADX and Stochastic RSI, and a positive CCI reading. Intraday, Bull/Bear Power shows buyer dominance while the Awesome Oscillator adds support for an ongoing bullish tone, even as the pair now trades near the day's low after slipping 0.5% from the open.

Previously it was reported that the Canadian Dollar’s technical momentum against the Indian Rupee had turned negative, with analysts highlighting increased downside risk amid rupee stability efforts by the RBI. The current analysis adds a new dimension with the pair regaining bullish technical structure above its key moving averages, indicating that a sustained breakout above ₹68.8967 would open the way for further upside in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: CAD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.