Finance minister affirms economic stability: Can USD/IDR hold support?

Traders Union
All News
Currency
US Dollar vs Rupiah slips 0.53% today

Highlights

The Indonesian Rupiah advanced, supported by improved economic outlook and a five-month high in foreign exchange reserves at USD 146.5 billion.
Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa reaffirmed a strong growth trajectory and the government's commitment to macroeconomic stability.
USD/IDR faces sustained selling pressure with bearish technical signals dominating, a consolidation expected in the Rp17,489 to Rp17,665 range barring a break below key support.

Rupiah demand boosted by record reserves and upbeat economic outlook

The Indonesian Rupiah strengthened on the back of improving economic sentiment and a new record in foreign exchange reserves, following public remarks from Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa reiterating the country's solid growth outlook and commitment to macroeconomic stability, as reported by Stockpil. The August increase in foreign exchange reserves to USD 146.5 billion, a five-month high according to Fxstreet, provided the central bank with enhanced capacity to manage external shocks and ensure Rupiah stability. These developments contributed to steady demand for the Rupiah during the observed session.

Bearish momentum persists as oversold signals reinforce technical barriers

On the hourly chart, USD/IDR is below the MA-20 at Rp17,625 and MA-50 at Rp17,635, but above the MA-200, which stands at Rp17,431. The Ichimoku Kijun level at Rp17,629 is acting as immediate resistance. Momentum indicators are largely bearish: MACD signals a sell, ADX registers a neutral trend, while RSI is low at 30.7. Both CCI and Stochastic RSI are oversold, reflecting an extended downswing, and Bull/Bear Power remains in oversold territory, highlighting short-term seller control. The Awesome Oscillator aligns with this downside bias, and price is tracking close to today's low amid low volatility.

Limited rebound odds as bearish momentum defines trading range

For the next two to three trading days, USD/IDR is expected to consolidate within a projected band of Rp17,489 to Rp17,665, reflecting typical volatility near current levels. The probability of an upward move is assessed as very low; sustained bearish pressure makes a rebound unlikely in the near term. A bullish scenario would require a decisive breakout above Rp17,629, while a bearish continuation would be confirmed if the pair closes below the Rp17,489 support, signaling renewed downside momentum.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees continued support for the Indonesian Rupiah driven by strong macroeconomic fundamentals and resilient foreign reserves. He notes that the Finance Minister's confident outlook and fresh reserve highs have stabilized sentiment despite technical weakness in USD/IDR. The analyst expects near-term consolidation rather than a sharp move in either direction. "As long as Indonesia’s macro stability and reserve strength hold, I remain constructive on the Rupiah’s prospects against the Dollar."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/IDR had adopted a bearish tone amid persistent selling pressure and technical resistance. The current technical setup, combined with improved macroeconomic fundamentals for Indonesia, heightens the importance of watching the Rp17,489 support level as a potential trigger for renewed downside momentum in the near term.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.